Benner Cycle vs Bitcoin Halving: Which Model Predicts 2026 Correctly?

The Four-Year Halving Cycle Under Scrutiny

Bitcoin’s correlation with its four-year halving cycle—a pattern that has structured market movements for over a decade—is increasingly being challenged by market participants. This cycle, which cuts mining rewards every four years and typically culminates in a bull run followed by a bear market the subsequent year, suggests 2026 could usher in a bearish phase.

However, some prominent analysts argue the pattern has lost its predictive power. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley contends that Bitcoin’s price movements are now primarily driven by global liquidity flows rather than predetermined halving schedules. “The 4-year cycle is a myth,” he stated, emphasizing that M2 money supply shifts hold more explanatory value than event-based halvings.

Historical Economic Models Pointing Toward 2026 Rally

While the traditional Bitcoin framework predicts caution for 2026, two centuries-old economic theories paint a starkly different picture. The 18-Year Real Estate Cycle, a framework tracking recurring boom-bust patterns in property markets, designates 2026 as a cycle peak—typically signaling strong market performance.

Equally compelling is the Benner Cycle, introduced by Ohio farmer Samuel Benner following the 1873 Panic. This model identifies recurring prosperity and panic phases across markets. Samuel Benner’s original analysis explicitly marked 2026 as the “Years of Good Times, High Prices”—a period designated for selling valuables across asset classes, suggesting bullish market conditions.

The Historical Record Speaks Louder Than Recent Cycles

Critics of the Bitcoin halving model point out a crucial asymmetry: the four-year cycle has only completed three full iterations, whereas the Benner Cycle has demonstrated accuracy across nearly 150 years of financial history. If historical precedent holds weight, the convergence of both the Benner and 18-year cycles pointing toward 2026 as a peak year would suggest an incoming bull market phase—a welcome prospect given crypto’s underwhelming Q4 performance.

What Awaits Bitcoin as 2026 Approaches?

With Bitcoin trading near $90.56K, the coming year presents a critical junction between two competing frameworks. Whether cryptocurrency markets follow the aging halving-driven model or align with time-tested macroeconomic cycles will define 2026’s trajectory. As 2025 concludes, investors face a fundamental choice: trust recent patterns or defer to historical precedent that has withstood multiple market regimes.