The Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts has new changes this year. The adjustments in predictions by the five major investment banks reflect a subtle shift in their outlook on the economic prospects.

Citigroup has pushed the rate cut window to March, July, and September, significantly later than previous expectations (January, March, September). Goldman Sachs expects two 25 basis point rate cuts in June and September, whereas earlier they anticipated cuts in March and June. The pace adjustments by these two banks are actually consistent—they are both delaying.

Barclays has a slightly different perspective, expecting rate cuts in June and December, looking into the end of the year. Morgan Stanley maintains expectations for June and September, aligning closely with Goldman Sachs. But the most noteworthy change is JPMorgan Chase's attitude shift—directly announcing no rate cuts in 2026, and instead expecting a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027. This indicates that some Wall Street institutions are already mentally preparing for longer-term tightening.

Overall, from the collective optimism of rate cuts in January to the current widespread postponement, and even expectations of no cuts or hikes, this reflects a reassessment of inflation stickiness and the resilience of the employment market. For the crypto world, the Federal Reserve's policy path directly impacts the attractiveness of risk assets, making this change worth continuous monitoring.