What History Tells Us: Bitcoin's January Pattern Points to Potential Fifth Consecutive Monthly Gain in 2024

rugpull_ptsd · 2026-01-12T11:05:09+00:00

Analyst Gamza Khanzadaev highlights Bitcoin's potential for a significant January 2024, as a positive close could mark five consecutive months of gains. With a strong historical performance in January, bullish expectations are supported despite past volatility.

rugpull_ptsd

2026-01-12 11:05:09

Abstract generation in progress

According to analyst Gamza Khanzadaev, Bitcoin might be on the verge of something historically significant this January. If the world’s largest cryptocurrency closes out the month in positive territory, it would mark the fifth consecutive monthly increase—a streak that kicked off back in September 2023.

The Numbers Behind January’s Optimism

Looking at the raw data, January has been surprisingly friendly to Bitcoin holders over the past 13 years. CryptoRank’s research reveals that Bitcoin has only turned red during five January sessions since 2011, meaning it’s closed higher roughly 72% of the time. The historical average return for January sits at 10.5%, with a median of 9.93%, providing solid statistical backing for bullish expectations.

The most glaring exception was January 2022, when Bitcoin tumbled 16.9%—a painful reminder that even statistical probabilities aren’t guarantees. On the flip side, January 2023 delivered nearly 40% gains, making it one of the strongest January performances in Bitcoin’s recorded history, second only to early 2013’s explosive growth.

Building Momentum from Recent Quarters

The current strength didn’t emerge overnight. September 2023 marked the beginning of this upward cycle, but October truly stole the show with a remarkable 28.5% surge. That performance capped off the best quarter Bitcoin has seen in nearly three years, with the overall quarterly gain reaching 57.7%. This kind of sustained positive momentum creates a psychological backdrop where January strength becomes even more likely.

What It Means If the Pattern Holds

The stakes are higher than just bragging rights about monthly wins. A positive January close would extend the five-month rally while maintaining the bull case that’s been building since early fall. For traders and holders tracking seasonal patterns, this represents one of Bitcoin’s most statistically favorable periods—though as always, markets reserve the right to surprise.

BTC0,56%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.