Ethereum's current stage is indeed very critical; we must stay alert.

Since analyzing Ethereum's market trend on November 25, my judgment about the second wave rebound has remained unchanged. The current view is still that it will break through the 3446 level on December 10.

Looking at the chart, you can notice an interesting rhythm: Wave one's correction took 89 days, and Wave two has already lasted 52 days since then. According to the golden ratio logic, if Wave two is 61.8% of Wave one, that would be 89×61.8%=55 days—that is this Friday, January 16. Coincidentally, January 20 (next Tuesday) is the Major Cold solar term, and these two time windows are worth paying attention to.

**What’s the next step?**

This one to two weeks will be very critical. Once an upward movement truly starts, the rapid acceleration can easily create the illusion that a bull market is here—but I must pour cold water on that, as it’s very likely just a trap to lure more buyers. Friends holding spot positions should decisively reduce their holdings above 3500.

Then, be prepared for Wave three's correction. Wave three is the driving wave, characterized by fast speed and large amplitude, and it’s also the easiest time to seize big trends in trend trading.

**Historical reference**

Just look back at 2021’s trend to understand. From the November peak of 4887 to the March 13, 2022 low of 878, it took 8 months, or about 32 weeks. The entire process perfectly fits the rhythm of a third wave correction: Wave one sets the trend directly, Wave two adjusts and is hard to grasp (with three consecutive weeks of bullish candles, a typical trap), and Wave three is fierce—dropping from 3580 to 878 in just 2 months.