Precious metals hit new highs while the dollar falls out of favor: the reordering of safe-haven assets has begun

Gold approaches $5,000, and silver breaks through $80, but surprisingly, the US dollar index is retreating. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, a clear contrast has emerged in the market: the dollar has not become the preferred safe-haven asset as it traditionally has, but instead, funds continue to flow into precious metals. This structural change is breaking long-standing macro consensus and may signal an important reshuffling of the safe-haven asset landscape.

Historical Contrast: Why This Time Is Different

Data comparison

According to the latest news, the performance of precious metals has far exceeded expectations:

Precious metals analyst Garrett Goggin pointed out the key to this change: in the past, during periods of escalation in US military or geopolitical conflicts, the dollar usually strengthened in tandem. But in this round, the dollar index has actually fallen, diverging sharply from gold and silver. This is not a cyclical fluctuation but a structural change, reflecting a weakening market trust in the dollar’s safe-haven function.

Deep-rooted Cause: Not Just Inflation Trading

Economist Peter Schiff stated that after gold broke through $4,560, the price center of gravity has shifted. The market no longer views $4,000 as a support level but is more inclined to see $5,000 as the new reference range. What does this shift in mindset indicate? The market generally believes that this rally is not just an extension of inflation trading but a reassessment of the stability of the monetary system.

Particularly noteworthy is the issue of the Federal Reserve’s independence. According to the latest news, attacks from Trump on the Fed have shaken investor confidence. Criminal investigations into Fed Chair Powell further exacerbate these concerns. This is not political news but directly impacts market assessments of the dollar and the stability of the US financial system. In this context, shifting investments into gold and silver makes much more sense.

From Speculation to Real Demand

The meaning of silver futures premium

Changes in the silver market are also worth noting. Dario, co-founder and COO of Synnax, mentioned that a premium structure has appeared in silver futures. What does this mean? It indicates that some companies and industrial buyers are locking in supplies early to hedge against future costs. This type of demand is more from the real economy rather than short-term speculation.

In other words, this is not retail investors jumping on the bandwagon, but genuine participants along the industrial chain preparing for the future. The 17% half-month increase in silver prices is supported by real economic activity, which enhances the sustainability of this rally.

Consensus Among Analysts

Kip Herriage believes that precious metals have long been undervalued, and the current rally resembles a delayed price correction rather than a bubble. Robert Kiyosaki reiterates his long-term view on silver, believing that scarce assets will continue to benefit in a high-debt environment. The logic behind these views is that, in an environment of high debt and uncertain monetary policy, the value of physical assets will be rediscovered.

Derivative Phenomenon: The Emergence of Precious Metal Perpetual Contracts

It is worth noting that the breakthrough in precious metal prices has also spawned new trading tools. According to the latest news, Silicon Valley Web3 startup XStable completed a multi-million dollar seed round and was selected for the Solana Solaris accelerator. XStable is the first decentralized trading engine on Solana focused on precious metal perpetual contracts, currently offering trading pairs for gold, silver, and three others.

What does this phenomenon indicate? Traditional financial instruments are following market demand, and the crypto ecosystem is also attempting to provide decentralized solutions for precious metal trading. This further confirms the genuine market demand for precious metal allocations.

Summary

Behind the approach of gold nearing $5,000 and silver breaking $80 is not just a simple commodity cycle but a deeper shift in asset allocation mentality. The contrast of the dollar falling out of favor and precious metals leading the rally reflects a reassessment of the stability of the monetary system. The crisis of Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical uncertainties, and real demand from the economy for cost hedging are driving this change.

This reshuffling of safe-haven assets may just be the beginning. Investors should pay attention to whether this structural change will deepen further and how the reshaping of the traditional safe-haven asset landscape will influence the allocation logic of other asset classes.