PIPPIN at the turning point: the rising directional channel tests the key support zone

Changes in the PIPPIN market are accelerating. The token, which at the beginning of January traded around $0.48, is now quoted at $0.37 after a 16.98% decline over seven days. This significant shift signals the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of important tests for the current trend.

Trading Technique: from Expansion to Consolidation

Analysis of the daily PIPPIN chart reveals fundamental changes in market dynamics. Starting from December, the price reached a peak around $0.70, still remaining within a broader upward trend, although the movement has lost its previous explosiveness. Currently, the price structure is characterized by a narrowing trading range formation, where the current high is below the previous one, and the lows are higher than earlier minima.

Moving averages are a key indicator of trend health. The 20-day EMA hovers around $0.40 and acts as a dynamic support for the price, while the 50-day EMA at about $0.30 remains well below the quotes, confirming that the long-term trend is still active. However, Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signaling a diminishing price impulse and a transition from chaotic fluctuations to a stabilization phase.

On shorter timeframes (30-minute), we observe a clearly functioning upward trend channel, which until recently supported the rise. The breakout level is $0.44–$0.45. As long as the price stays above this threshold, the channel structure remains intact. A break below would be the first signal that sellers are taking control.

The RSI indicator has retreated from overbought territory and is now near the 50 level, reflecting a cooling demand. MACD, although still positive, shows a flat movement trend, suggesting that further growth requires a new impulse from buyers, not just technical inertia.

The Role of Leverage in Volatility

PIPPIN quotes on derivative platforms that allow leverage up to 5x, along with an increase in contract positions, have coincided with sharper price movements. Increased tension among speculative traders leads to amplification of both gains and losses. This dynamic explains why the recent rejection around $0.52 turned into a significant correction—traders took profits instead of sustaining the rally, and automatic liquidation systems accelerated the decline.

Supply Concentration: Hidden Risk Factor

Blockchain analysis data indicate asymmetric distribution among holders. About 80% of the total PIPPIN supply is held in wallets linked to insiders, and coordinated clusters amount to approximately $380 million. This capital concentration poses latent risk. While it does not determine the immediate price direction, it increases the chances of sudden, large sell-offs initiated by major holders during upward phases.

Observation shows that rallies struggle to cleanly break resistance levels despite significant trading volumes—this dynamic is explained precisely by the token’s ownership structure.

The Project’s Narrative Continues to Attract Attention

The identity of PIPPIN as an autonomous AI agent created by Yohei Nakajima (known from BabyAGI) remains a main point of market interest. Planned expansion to multiple blockchains in 2026, implementation of a private agent execution, and new incentive mechanisms are factors supporting long-term interest. However, the market already demands more than just the narrative—confirmation is needed through a stable price structure and sustained demand.

Alternative Scenarios for the Coming Days

Bullish Scenario: Fresh buying activity above $0.45 will allow a return to $0.52 and then to the $0.60–$0.70 zone if trading volume increases.

Bearish Scenario: Losing the support level of $0.40 means breaking the upward channel and shifting into a deeper correction phase.

The PIPPIN market is at a decision point. The breakout phase is no longer ongoing—fundamental levels are being tested, which will determine the next trend direction.