Countdown to US stock market opening: Increased probability of decline in November, breaking June's consecutive gains record

According to Golden Finance, U.S. stocks will resume trading after Thanksgiving. The limited trading window before 1 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday (2 a.m. Beijing Time the next day) has become the final gamble for November’s market performance.

Data Faces a Turning Point: Most Indices Fall into the Red This Month

As of Wednesday’s performance report, market outlooks are not optimistic. The S&P 500 has declined by 0.4% month-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 0.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite has widened its decline to 2.15%. Such a downturn is extremely difficult to reverse within the remaining hours.

Winning Streaks Are in Jeopardy

If U.S. stocks fail to stage a strong rebound on Friday, several key indices will end their long-term winning streaks. The S&P 500 and Dow each may conclude their six-month consecutive gains, and the Nasdaq’s seven-month rally could also be broken. This will mark an important turning point in the recent market.

Historical Comparisons Reveal Anomalies

According to long-term data from Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1950, the average November gain for the S&P 500 has been around 1.8%. During U.S. presidential election years, this figure is usually about 1.6%. However, this year’s trajectory is notably deviating from the norm—facing a decline in November, contrasting sharply with historical patterns, reflecting the current market’s uniqueness and uncertainty.

Reflections on the Future

In the coming months and even years, it is difficult to predict when the market will return to well-established historical patterns. The current market environment has broken traditional seasonal and election-year norms, and investors need to adapt to this new, more challenging trading ecosystem.