When will the potential rebound opportunity emerge as Dogecoin faces adjustment pressure?

As of the latest data, Dogecoin (DOGE) is priced at $0.14, down nearly 81% from its all-time high of $0.73. This round of decline has not only severely damaged retail investor confidence but also raised doubts about the future prospects of this well-known meme coin. However, amidst the pessimism, there are also potential rebound opportunities emerging.

Institutional Apathy, Diverging Capital Flows

The root cause of Dogecoin’s current predicament lies in the continued weakening participation of institutional investors. According to on-chain data, DOGE-related funds under Grayscale and Bitwise have seen no substantial incremental capital since mid-December, with total inflows totaling only $2 million and net assets stagnating at $5 million. In contrast, during the same period, institutional capital flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum have been relatively active, forming a stark contrast.

The dull scene in the futures market is even more intuitive. DOGE futures open interest has fallen from a peak of over $6 billion at the beginning of the year to $1.4 billion, a decline of 77%. The shrinking open interest indicates that market participants lack confidence in the future trend, with few new long positions being added, further increasing selling pressure.

Technical Outlook in a Dilemma, Potential Support for Rebound Needs Verification

From the candlestick pattern perspective, Dogecoin has completed a typical technical head-and-shoulders structure. In the head-and-shoulders top pattern, the peak is around $0.4855, with the left and right shoulders at $0.2285 and $0.30 respectively. After breaking below the neckline, a bearish signal was confirmed. More critically, on December 9, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages experienced a death cross, a classic technical indicator often signaling continued downside.

In terms of momentum indicators, RSI and MACD are both in a downward trend, reflecting that sellers continue to dominate the market. Based on the current technical structure, the support level is expected around $0.08, representing approximately a 43% decline from the current price. However, it is worth noting that if DOGE can hold above $0.15, the technical outlook may have a chance to breathe, potentially triggering a rebound momentum.

Meme Coin Ecosystem Under Pressure, Industry Risks Spreading

Dogecoin’s decline is not an isolated phenomenon but a microcosm of the entire meme coin sector. Popular projects like Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE) are also experiencing significant declines. Meanwhile, although Bitcoin and Ethereum show occasional rebound signals, they have yet to form a strong driving effect, and low-market-cap assets remain neglected.

Turning Point for Potential Rebound

Despite the bleak outlook, there are potential technical rebound opportunities. If Dogecoin can effectively rebound above $0.15 and recover key moving average supports, market sentiment could turn around. Whether institutional funds re-enter at that point and the overall risk appetite in the crypto market shifts will be critical variables in determining the subsequent trend.

Investors should carefully monitor technical position changes and market liquidity performance at this stage to avoid hasty decisions in a highly volatile environment.