Resources and Opportunities - Web3 Cryptocurrency Trading Platform

Two main constraints for long-term investors,

Or the development constraints for most ordinary people,

No resources and no opportunities.

Ancient people said that generals and ministers are born without a specific lineage,

This is true in turbulent times.

The current social structure is basically becoming more stable in terms of upward and downward mobility,

Which means that opportunities for ordinary people to stand out are becoming harder due to class solidification,

Good positions are inherited by second and third generations.

Social progress and involution,

Lead most small-town exam takers riding the wave of the era’s dividends into big cities,

Just like around the 2000s when college students found it not difficult to get jobs,

Shanghai also had many opportunities to find foreign-funded enterprises,

After a vibrant 20 years,

The intensification of involution has led to resource distribution concentrating in the hands of a few with higher evolutionary dimensions,

And good opportunities are decreasing,

Many middle-class people now are thinking about how to maintain the quality level of their wealth without being caught up by inflation,

And they are also contemplating future pathways; excessive school competition and learning races increase the marginal costs for everyone involved with children,

The difficulty of coursework means parents also need to participate in tutoring and competition,

Children who can’t keep up with grades cause chaos at home,

And future employment opportunities are likely to decrease significantly with AI evolution,

After more than ten years of intense school competition, the purpose of it all is somewhat perplexing.

Value investing itself does not provide resources or opportunities,

Value investing requires strengthening one’s own resources or having a certain amount of capital,

This is very realistic,

At least one cannot have financial leverage to confidently pursue value investing,

Sometimes even frugal consumption is necessary,

Munger said it’s hard to do value investing before age 40,

Probably because of a mismatch between cognition and capital,

Many young people are interested and capable of investing,

But lack capital,

Knowing this doesn’t help much.

With a capital of 100,000 yuan,

Based on reasonable returns from value investing,

It takes about 12 years to reach around 1 million.

Young people without resources can only amplify risks to follow trends or the overall momentum.

For example, state-supported industries like SMIC or leading stocks like BYD,

This is hard to call value investing,

But for young people with insufficient capital resources, it’s a resource upgrade opportunity,

Because it shortens the initial capital accumulation process,

Value investing is indeed too difficult and too slow to verify through practical evolution.

But I’ve also met people with 2 million yuan in capital who want to do value speculation,

Because they think value investing is too slow,

That’s also a personal choice.

I personally think that 2 million yuan is already very difficult to supplement through off-market funds,

And over a 10-year horizon,

Decent value investing can potentially grow from 200,000 to 1 million or more,

Using 10 years to achieve moderate financial freedom,

Which also saves a lot of future time needed to actively seek money,

And offers a better future outlook,

Maybe 10 years can bring about 30 years of future benefits,

So it’s quite worthwhile.

When value investing stabilizes and progresses smoothly, it’s after cognitive and capital double breakthroughs,

Because the constraints of resources disappear,

Opportunity constraints will also vanish,

Improved cognition means an evolution in stock picking and timing,

Opportunities are plentiful,

Good opportunities are still rare,

But compared to the period of unfamiliarity where no suitable investment targets are found,

When stock switching stalls,

Or when the ability circle for stock switching is insufficient,

All these issues are basically overcome,

Only then can one say their investment has advanced from relative returns to absolute returns,

And risk continues to decrease.

Investors who haven’t crossed the threshold during familiar value investing periods,

Talking about risk pricing is somewhat premature.

At this point,

Sometimes I feel that writing reflections doesn’t help most viewers,

Mainly because it’s about organizing my own thoughts,

Hoping to improve gradually,

Find an investment model that suits me and progress slowly,

That’s probably it.

Long-term thinking requires cultivating a habit of long-term reflection,

Using the strength of long-term business analysis to replace or reduce the luck component in short-term price fluctuations and market games.

Good or bad luck in the short term doesn’t matter,

In the long run, it’s about relying on strength.

I don’t participate in IPOs,

Almost never do cash flow adjustments to earn interest spreads,

And I don’t engage in various options,

Just the secondary market + cash positions.

This is probably related to my perception of the difficulty of evolving value investing,

Focusing on the other side of long-term thinking evolution,

Avoiding short-term gains and luck preferences.

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