On January 12th, the international markets experienced a rare collective shock. Gold futures in New York broke through the $4,600 mark for the first time, with spot gold rising 1.8% in a single day, and silver surged an impressive 5%, hitting a new historical high; meanwhile, Brent crude oil approached $64 per barrel, with a two-day increase that set a three-month high. However, US stock futures appeared somewhat weak in pre-market trading, declining overall.

What exactly happened behind this market movement? In summary, two super variables are fermenting simultaneously:

One side is the escalating tension in Iran. The Trump administration is set to finalize its final strategy against Iran on the 13th, with aircraft carrier deployments and cyberattacks on the table. Iran’s daily oil exports of 2 million barrels face the risk of disruption. Iran is not idle either, threatening that any attack would directly target US and allied military bases in the Middle East. Hundreds of Iranians have already lost their lives in conflicts, and the situation feels on the verge of erupting.

On the other side, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suddenly finds himself embroiled in controversy. People from the Trump camp are attacking him over an overspending renovation project, essentially retaliating for his previous refusal to cut interest rates. This directly threatens the independence of the Federal Reserve, causing unrest on Wall Street.

When these two factors combine, safe-haven funds immediately flock into traditional safe assets like gold and silver. Institutional investors are even calling for gold prices to surge past $5,000 and oil prices to target $80. Interestingly, cryptocurrencies have not played a leading role in this wave of risk aversion; the market’s expectations of them as safe-haven assets seem to have cooled down.

The pressing question now is: will the Iran situation ultimately open that final door for gold, allowing it to break through the psychological barrier of 5000? And for holders of cryptocurrencies, as traditional precious metals surge repeatedly, can digital assets find a new safe-haven narrative? These are issues worth continuing to observe.