Prediction Markets Downplay Powell Exit Risk Despite DOJ Probe

2026-01-12 04:20:10

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Prediction markets downplay Powell exit risk despite DOJ probe: Asia Morning Briefing Original Link: https://cryptonews.net/news/analytics/32260077/ Prediction markets are signaling skepticism that political pressure in Washington will translate into the early removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, even after federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

On Polymarket, traders early priced just an 8% chance that Powell would step down as Fed chair by March 31, which barely changed despite Powell accusing the administration of using the probe as a pretext to pressure monetary policy.

A separate Polymarket contract assigns a 67% probability that Powell leaves the Fed Board by late May, showing that even once he leaves the role by the end of his term his influence will likely still be felt on the Board.

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