#比特币期权交割 The $23.7 billion annual settlement has been completed at 16:00, marking the largest one this year. Looking at historical data, settlements of similar scale often trigger significant volatility amplification and unilateral trends.

After the 2023 annual settlement ($11 billion), BTC quickly surged towards $48,000 once the suppression disappeared; after the 2024 annual settlement ($19.8 billion), it continued to break through $80,000. The common point is: before settlement, the market is pinned within a narrow range by gamma hedging; after settlement, this "cage" disappears, liquidity constraints are lifted, and prices tend to accelerate.

Currently, BTC is oscillating within a narrow range of $85,000-$90,000 before settlement, with a maximum pain point around $96,000. Weak liquidity during holidays combined with rising precious metals has suppressed volatility. This suppression is expected to release after settlement. Based on historical patterns, there may be room to break above $90,000, and some institutions are even optimistic about reaching $100,000.

The key to events like settlement is identifying when the suppression will be lifted—once gamma hedging positions are closed, the market will quickly seek a new equilibrium. In the coming days, focus on large options positions and whale movements to see if funds are pre-positioning or quickly exiting.