#比特币衍生品与交割 When I saw this news, my first reaction was: finally!

Over the past two weeks, I’ve been observing that strange suppression feeling before options expiration. BTC just couldn’t push through certain key levels, and I was wondering if some invisible hand was manipulating the market. Now, Glassnode’s data confirms this — with $23.6 billion worth of options expiring, the hedging positions are indeed mechanically suppressing the price.

There’s a key logic to clarify here: derivatives themselves are not the problem, but when hedging demand far exceeds actual trading demand, the price gets "locked" in place, losing its reflection of true supply and demand. What we see in the price movements isn’t the market’s genuine sentiment, but rather the traces of hedging activity. This is what I mean by feeling "trapped by the market makers."

Now that the suppression has lifted and the price discovery mechanism is back in the hands of the market, this is normal. Coupled with the ongoing expansion of M2, the story of fiat dilution continues, and in this environment, BTC’s upward bias is indeed strengthening.

But I want to remind everyone: lifting derivatives suppression doesn’t mean an immediate surge. The upcoming volatility could actually be more intense. Both the suppressed bulls and bears will start to release, and whoever acts first can gain an edge. This is when "false breakouts" are most likely to occur, trapping new traders. So no matter how the market moves, you must stick to risk management principles and not FOMO just because the mechanism seems to be returning.

Only by surviving can you see the real opportunities.