TRUMP unlocks $275 million within a week, will this cause a dump?

According to the latest news, the Official Trump (TRUMP) token will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 0:00 Beijing time on January 19, valued at about $275 million. This unlock accounts for 11.95% of TRUMP’s circulating supply and represents a relatively large single unlock event. Considering that TRUMP has been listed for only about a year, market reactions to this unlock are worth paying attention to.

How Large Is the Unlock

Data Benchmark

Based on information data, TRUMP’s current market performance is as follows:

• Current Price: $5.50
• Circulating Supply: 199 million tokens
• Market Cap: $110 million (Market Cap Rank #64)
• 24-Hour Trading Volume: $247 million

The $275 million worth of this unlock is nearly 2.5 times TRUMP’s entire market cap and exceeds the 24-hour trading volume. In terms of scale, this is indeed a significant unlock event.

Comparison with Same Period

According to reports, several other tokens are also scheduled for large unlocks next week:

• ARB (Arbitrum): approximately 92.65 million tokens unlocked on January 16, worth about $19.2 million
• STRK (Starknet): approximately 127 million tokens unlocked on January 15, worth about $10.4 million
• CONX (Connex): approximately 1.32 million tokens unlocked on January 15, worth about $20.4 million

Compared to these, TRUMP’s unlock value is significantly larger, which to some extent reflects the current market enthusiasm for TRUMP.

The Uniqueness of Meme Coin Unlocks

Sentiment-Driven vs Fundamentals

This is key to understanding the impact of TRUMP’s unlock. Unlike traditional projects, TRUMP as a meme coin is primarily driven by community sentiment and narrative rather than technical progress or financial data. Discussions around related news indicate that the market focuses more on TRUMP’s “Trump political symbol” and community consensus rather than tokenomics.

This means that the unlock itself is a neutral event—it does not change TRUMP’s technology or use cases. However, it may influence market sentiment: large unlocks often trigger “selling pressure expectations,” where the market fears that the unlockers will sell large amounts of tokens.

Historical Reference

Based on discussions in the news, since TRUMP’s launch on January 18, 2025, it has experienced multiple rounds of market sentiment fluctuations. Similar meme coins (like PEPE, BOME) have also faced short-term pressure during unlock periods, but strong community support usually allows recovery after unlocking.

Possible Market Reactions

Short-Term Pressure

In the week before the unlock, the market typically anticipates and prices in this expectation. Recent price data shows TRUMP has increased by 0.56% over the past 7 days, possibly reflecting market anticipation of the unlock. On the day of the unlock or in the days following, if large sell-offs occur, the price could face short-term downward pressure.

Key Observation Points

From personal observation, several signals are worth noting:

• Community sentiment before the unlock: if the community remains optimistic about TRUMP’s narrative, they may actively absorb sell orders during the unlock
• Behavior of the unlockers: if they choose to sell gradually rather than all at once, selling pressure will be more moderate
• Macro factors at the same time: according to reports, the Fed’s rate cut expectations have weakened, and market risk appetite may decline, which could intensify selling pressure during the unlock period

Summary

TRUMP’s $275 million unlock is indeed substantial, accounting for 11.95% of circulating supply. But for meme coins, the unlock itself does not change its core nature—community confidence and market sentiment are still key. In the short term, there may be some selling pressure before and after the unlock, but the impact on long-term holders is limited. More importantly, attention should be on how the market will reprice TRUMP’s value after the unlock and whether the community can maintain enthusiasm for the “Trump political symbol.”