Looking at Venezuela's oil export flow can reveal a glimpse of the global energy landscape. In 2023, China imported 144 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, accounting for 68.1% of the country's total exports. Behind this is a long-standing "oil-for-loan" agreement between China and Venezuela—a financing arrangement exceeding $50 billion. In simple terms, China provides the loans first, and Venezuela repays with oil.

Since the agreement began in 2016, the quota has likely increased significantly. Currently, estimates of Venezuela's debt to China range between $8 billion and $20 billion, with different sources possibly including various engineering loans. For China's economy, this number isn't a major concern. Conversely, if Venezuela defaults, it would lose its largest oil buyer—how would they manage? Among the over 4 billion barrels of crude oil China imports, Venezuela accounts for only 3.5%, and China can easily adjust its import sources from Canada, the Middle East, and other regions.

The U.S. is also importing Venezuelan oil, reaching 48.5 million barrels in 2023, which accounts for 22.9% of Venezuela's exports. Spain and Cuba account for 4% and 3.6%, respectively, while the remaining countries combined account for less than 0.5%. In other words, Venezuela's oil market is essentially divided between China and the U.S.

This situation is quite awkward for the U.S.. Although American oil companies want to access more Venezuelan resources, several major firms find it difficult and are unwilling to make large-scale investments. The fundamental bottleneck is: finding buyers. As one of the world's largest oil importers, China has already secured its position as Venezuela's biggest buyer. The U.S. has little room to maneuver if it wants to bypass China and reorganize this supply chain.