XRP surged every time the dollar fell: this analyst claims that history could repeat itself

Source: Yellow Original Title: XRP surged every time the dollar fell: this analyst claims the story could repeat

Original Link: XRP trades above $2 after retreating from early January highs near $2.40, and analysts suggest that the US dollar index is approaching a structural zone that has historically preceded the biggest gains for the token.

What happened: dollar index pattern

Crypto analyst Bird shared a technical analysis identifying three previous periods — 2017, 2021, and 2024 — in which sustained weakness in the DXY coincided with strong bullish movements in XRP.

The DXY, or US dollar index, measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.

The pattern suggests that XRP responds to macro conditions rather than specific developments of the token. When dollar dominance decreases, capital tends to rotate into cryptocurrencies.

The late 2017 cycle saw XRP rise to the mid-$3 range amid dollar weakening, while the 2020‑2021 period produced a push up to $1.90 at the cycle’s peak. The first half of 2025 culminated with XRP reaching its current all-time high of $3.65 in July.

Why it matters: macro decision point

The DXY is currently around 99, a level that Bird identifies as a decision point for market direction.

If the index weakens and starts printing red candles, the historical pattern suggests conditions would become favorable for another bullish run in XRP, potentially above $3.65 within months. A strengthening dollar would indicate the opposite, with tighter liquidity conditions likely keeping XRP limited to a consolidation around $2.

The next move of the dollar will determine which scenario materializes.

Meanwhile, technical analyst ChartNerd identified that XRP has formed a “Golden Cross” on the 5-day MACD, which occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line.

The histogram has also shifted from red to green.

The last time this signal appeared was in July, when XRP reached a new all-time high.