Texas Employment Report: What It Tells Us About 2025

The latest Texas employment forecast is raising eyebrows—showing virtually flat job growth for 2025, sitting right around zero. The 80% confidence range? -0.3% to 0.3%, which basically means the data is telling us: expect sideways movement.

Here's what matters for markets: This forecast pulls from an average of four different economic models, each factoring in projected U.S. economic conditions. When employment growth stalls like this, it typically signals two things—either the broader economy is losing steam, or we're in a consolidation phase.

For crypto traders watching macro trends, this is relevant context. Weak employment data historically influences Fed decisions on interest rates and liquidity. A flat employment picture could mean continued monetary policy scrutiny or potential rate holds. Either way, it's the kind of signal that tends to ripple through risk assets.

Texas being a bellwether state makes this especially worth monitoring—what happens in employment there often precedes broader national trends. Keep this on your radar as Q1 unfolds.