2026-01-11 05:21:30

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a quite rare historical moment.

Looking back, a one-year negative return usually signals an upcoming bear market. However, July 2020 was an exception — after the indicator briefly turned negative, it was followed by a rather fierce rally.

Interestingly, the current situation is becoming increasingly similar to that year’s scenario. This is quite rare in Bitcoin’s history.

Mathematically speaking, it’s very clear: as long as BTC rises another 4.5%, this indicator can turn from negative to positive. Once that happens, it will be the second time in Bitcoin’s history that this phenomenon occurs.

Conversely, if it cannot be pushed up and the annual return continues to stay in the negative zone, we will have to continue to accompany the previous bear cycle.

The key point is here — a price fluctuation of about 5% in Bitcoin is enough to determine whether it can break another historical pattern. This 5% could rewrite the upcoming trend.

BTC1%

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NFTArchaeologis

· 1h ago

The 4.5% gap feels eerily like history repeating itself.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 14h ago

Oh no, it's that magical moment again—4.5% can change your fate? I bet it won't break through. A one-year negative return has only happened once in history, and it took a 20-year rally to recover. Now trying to replicate it? Honestly, it's a bit doubtful. 5% may not seem like much, but at this point, it's like walking a tightrope on the edge of a cliff... But if it really breaks through, I wouldn't be surprised. Bitcoin loves to do these reverse moves.

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CoconutWaterBoy

· 01-11 05:50

It's that 5% thing again... Honestly, I'm a bit fed up, seeing these critical points every day.

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AirdropHunter007

· 01-11 05:50

4.5% to turn the tide? Laughable, such a small increase and you’re still hyping it? --- I experienced that wave in 2020 too, and it does have that vibe... but could this just be another story this time? --- It all depends on whether this 5% can be broken. If it breaks, it will take off; if not, just keep lying flat. --- Replaying history? Pure nonsense, every time they say it's rare, but it ends up becoming common. --- As long as it's 4.5%... this sounds like you're giving yourself a pep talk, haha. --- I just want to know where it will drop if it can't break this time. --- The 5% thing has made the market so tense, it's kind of interesting. --- Bitcoin, don’t lie to me again. Last time you also said it was a special moment, and I got trapped.

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MidnightGenesis

· 01-11 05:48

On-chain data shows that this 5% fluctuation is indeed a critical threshold. I monitored the turning point in 2020 throughout the process, and the timing of the contract deployment was particularly interesting. The current trend from the code perspective does indeed have some correlations. It’s worth noting that history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but patterns often do.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-11 05:44

It's that 5% again... To put it simply, it really becomes a mess when you try to operate it.

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GasGuzzler

· 01-11 05:40

4.5% this thing, feels just like betting on a coin flip. Either it goes up or down, no middle ground. --- It's that same "history repeating" story again, claiming it's rare every time, but how rare is it really? --- I remember the 20-year market cycle, but the macro environment now is completely different, right? Trying to replicate? Dream on. --- A 5% fluctuation can rewrite everything? Sounds like there's no real support, just pure luck. --- So basically—if it can't be pushed up, it's doomed; if it gets pushed up, it takes off. Can this even be written into an article? --- Kind of interesting. But I want to know more about who is positioning at this 4.5%, probably more important than technical indicators. --- Anyway, I don't believe in this nonsense of "breaking the historical pattern soon." --- Then let the bullets fly a little longer and see how this 5% finally plays out.

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GasFeeVictim