Bitcoin's movement on January 11th fell into a typical tug-of-war. The price repeatedly oscillated around $90,545, with only a few tenths of a percent change over 24 hours, showing almost no significant directional move. Looking at the intraday extremes, it reached a high of $90,832 and did not dip below $90,125, with the amplitude tightly compressed. The trading volume of 13.56 billion also says it all—clearly not very active, and it's obvious that both bulls and bears are waiting for a key signal to appear.

The logic behind this stalemate is actually not hard to understand. First, there has been a change in institutional funds—ETF net outflows have continued for four days, and the previously accumulated inflows at the beginning of the month are gradually being digested. Major players naturally dare not add positions rashly. Second, external uncertainties are still fermenting—the fate of 660,000 Venezuelan Bitcoins remains unresolved, directly affecting circulation expectations. No one wants to be the first to bet in such a vague environment. Third, the technical aspect is stuck at a sensitive level—short-term resistance is at $91,200, and support at $89,917 has not been broken, presenting a symmetrical deadlock.

But there are also clues to follow. Over the past week, Bitcoin has been continuously net outflowing from exchanges, while institutional holdings have remained relatively stable, implying that long-term funds have not fled. Meanwhile, the Fed's rate cut expectations still exist, coupled with the upcoming critical review phase of the U.S. CLARITY Act on January 15th. These could be catalysts that change the situation. The short-term breakthrough depends on whether it can hold above the psychological level of $91,000, or once it falls below the $90,000 mark, the subsequent direction will become truly clearer.