2026-01-11 04:20:14

Regarding the 2026 alternative token market, there is a high level of interest in the backend consultations. Based on benchmark analysis of the 2017 and 2021 cycles, a relatively clear judgment can be made: the alternative token season will indeed arrive, with the overall structure similar to the 2021 pattern, but the specific rhythm and risk points have already undergone significant changes.

From a time window perspective, the launch is expected around March, with a peak in gains occurring between April and May, and gradually entering a contraction phase after September. Spring and summer will show obvious rotation characteristics, with various assets taking turns to become market focal points. By the end of the year, the market focus will return to BTC, and its dominant position will re-emerge. This judgment is based on an analysis of historical data, not subjective speculation.

Why replicate the 2021 logical framework? The core reason lies in the similarity of underlying driving forces. Both cycles follow the same capital flow pattern: BTC stabilizes first and attracts institutional capital, laying a solid foundation, then funds gradually overflow from BTC and shift toward higher-yield alternative tokens. The difference lies in the changing catalysts. In 2021, the hot trends of DeFi and NFTs triggered the rotation market, while the driving forces for 2026 are more diverse.

From the supply side, spot ETFs continue to attract incremental funds, and market liquidity has been thoroughly restored from the tight state of Q4 last year. Ample capital pools provide sufficient nutrients for the alternative token market. From the track perspective, the development maturity of emerging fields such as RWA, Layer2, and DePIN has significantly improved. The imagination space and practical application scenarios of these tracks are more solid than in previous cycles.

It is important to note that the risk layout in this cycle differs from previous ones. The pace of capital inflows and outflows is faster, and the differentiation between leading projects and small- to medium-sized projects will be more pronounced. Missing this cycle may mean waiting another four-year cycle, so it is crucial to prepare in advance.

BTC0,7%

DEFI1,5%

RWA-1,96%

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 01-11 04:50

Well... historical data speaks for itself, but I still have a question mark about the March launch. The market just loves to deceive. It would be good if the peak in April-May can hold without liquidation; don't be fooled by the illusion of liquidity. Is the initial segmentation obvious? That means small and medium projects could become dominoes, with lending rates skyrocketing leading to chain liquidations. No matter how solid the track is, it's useless. A four-year cycle and going all in? Think about how the liquidation price is set. Currently, abundant liquidity might be the riskiest time... What does it mean when funds move in and out quickly? The health factor could collapse at any time. Can the 2021 approach still be used? Wake up, risk control thresholds have changed. Don't be fooled by "full nutrients"; the real nutrients are the margin in your account.

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BankruptWorker

· 01-11 04:50

Starting from March? So I should start bottom-fishing right now? Last time I believed in the 2021 logic, I almost lost everything. Can I really trust it this time? It's either RWA or Layer2, and in the end, it's just the top few players eating the meat while we drink the soup. Rise in April and profit-taking in May? Such a precise timing window, I find it hard to believe. Wait, ample supply and sufficient liquidity pools... Why does it sound like someone still wants to take over? Should I get on now or wait until September to get off? Maybe we should gamble a bit. The life of a worker—missing a four-year cycle is like working another four years. Is the top and mid-cap segmentation obvious? What should I, a small retail investor, choose to avoid pitfalls? Watching others get rich during the DeFi wave, I regret not jumping in. I can't miss out this time. Faster pace? I might get trapped before I even react. Bro, does your analysis have data support, or is it just gut feeling?

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AlgoAlchemist

· 01-11 04:49

Launching in March? Why do I feel like this kind of prediction is made every year --- Again, a replica of 2021. Hopefully this time it won't crash, I haven't even untangled the copycat holdings yet --- Is the differentiation between top projects and small to medium ones more obvious? Basically, retail investors are more likely to get caught in the雷 --- RWA, Layer2, DePIN... all sound good, but the problem is there are too many fake projects in these tracks now --- Wait, with spot ETFs continuously attracting funds, why do I still feel like the capital hasn't come in? --- Peak in April-May, contraction starting in September, is this timing reliable? Didn't we predict the same last year --- The key is to choose the right track, otherwise even the best cycle won't let you make money --- Historical data analysis ≠ a guaranteed future trend, isn't this logic a bit absolute? --- Is the liquidity pool really sufficient? From my perspective, liquidity still doesn't look great --- The clear differentiation among small and medium projects means you need to select carefully, which is the real challenge

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StableCoinKaren

· 01-11 04:47

Launching in March? Then I’d better rush to buy the dip Peak in April-May? Is that another illusory promise Talking so confidently, what if it crashes Historical patterns aren’t that accurate anyway Are RWA and Layer2 really well understood, or just hype The head and tail are clearly separated, this time I really need to pick the projects Wait, this logic is the same as 2021, how did that end... Can spot ETFs really be delayed this long? It’s a bit uncertain Missing four years of waiting? Don’t scare people, huh Fast-paced capital inflows and outflows... easy to get cut, brother

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MelonField

· 01-11 04:47

Launching in March? It depends on BTC's performance, otherwise it's all for nothing. --- Peak in April-May, this time we need to select projects carefully, can't all in on small coins. --- RWA and Layer2 have matured so much? Feels still like a conceptual stage... --- Fast capital inflows and outflows are reliable, retail investors are always the last to take the hit. --- Waiting for a four-year cycle again? Then you better bet right this time, not an easy gamble. --- The logic from 2021 can be replicated, but people's minds have changed; it’s not as crazy this time. --- Ample capital pools? Who's really throwing real money into alternative tokens now? --- Clear differentiation means most people will get caught, recognize this point. --- Historical data analysis sounds professional, but no one can accurately predict the specific rhythm. --- Doing homework in advance is good, just don’t treat it as gospel.

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CounterIndicator

· 01-11 04:47

Start rotating in March? Come on, I bet another 5 ETH that it will be delayed again. --- Can the 2021 logic still be used now? Sufficient liquidity does not necessarily mean a surge. --- The differentiation between top projects and small/mid-cap ones is more obvious... Basically, small coins are about to be harvested again. --- I'm already tired of hearing about RWA, Layer2, I prefer to see actual price increases to speak. --- Wait, are you saying the shrinkage starts in September? Then I might have to run away early. --- It's another review based on historical data... When will the market follow the script? --- Every four years, when the 2026 bull run actually arrives, small investors will still be caught, don't fool yourself. --- Spot ETF inflows are okay, but the real buyers are still institutions; retail investors can only follow the trend. --- March, May, September... Why are these dates set so rigidly? Feels unreliable.

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BridgeTrustFund

· 01-11 04:39

Launching in March? Just listen and wait, I'll wait until April to decide. Here we go again with the 2021 drama, is this time really different? RWA Layer2 DePIN... sounds nice, but in the end, it's just following the trend. Funds are flowing in and out quickly, retail investors are going to get cut again. You're so confident, why not just tell us what to buy? Old rotation logic, how did those who believed in this last year fare? A four-year cycle, I want to see how long this can last this time.

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