Ladies and gentlemen! The non-farm payroll data will be released at 9:30 PM tonight, and I see a bunch of novice brothers preparing to go all in on the "Number of New Jobs" figure. Calm down. I’ve seen too many people crash and burn because of this—last June, a wave of 150,000 jobs led to direct liquidation, with 3 billion in funds vanishing into thin air, all because they blindly entered the market based on a single data point.

Let me clarify one thing: Non-farm payrolls are never a game of betting size, but rather an emotional gauge of the crypto market.

The core logic is actually very straightforward—Data released → Affects interest rate cut expectations → Hot money flow determines the direction. Whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates directly decides where the market’s incremental funds will flow. And to judge the expectation of a rate cut, you must look at three data points—Number of New Jobs, Unemployment Rate, and Year-over-Year Wages. Missing any one of these, your judgment is just guesswork.

Let me mark the current market reference points for you. The November unemployment rate is 4.6%, the market consensus expects around 55,000 new jobs in December, and the unemployment rate is expected to fluctuate within 4.6%-4.7%. Remember these numbers, and you'll have a reference point later.

Next is the practical part. I’ll give you two scenarios to match directly, combining real past cases to explain thoroughly—

The first scenario is a bullish pattern for crypto. If the unemployment rate breaks above 4.7%, or if the new jobs data falls far below expectations (for example, plunging below 30,000), this sends a clear signal to the market: the US economy may be weakening. Once the economy weakens, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve increases, and hot money will naturally flow into risk assets, with the crypto market being the first to benefit.