Watching BTC rebound just to fall back again really tightens the heart. But don’t rush to despair. As a long-term observer of the crypto market, I have to say: such emotional fluctuations are normal during bull and bear transitions.

Currently, BTC is stuck at the 0.75 percentile cost line, which is entirely in line with market rules. From the previous 0.65 percentile climb to now, it means about 10% of the trapped chips have seen hope for a rebound. Imagine, after experiencing significant volatility earlier, how many people in the market truly dare to chase highs? Those holding chips and waiting for a rebound, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, their first reaction is inevitably "take profits when the time is right." The logic behind this wave of selling pressure couldn’t be clearer, and it’s completely within expectations.

Over the past month, I’ve been deeply analyzing data—from detailed changes in chip distribution, whale address fund flows, to the selling pace of long-term holders, even the directional premium in the futures market and the position structure of options funds—all analyzed one by one. Combining these indicators, the market’s panic sentiment is indeed gradually improving, which is undoubtedly a positive signal.

But there is one data indicator that has kept me cautious—the BTC balance on a major spot exchange. For friends who follow my analysis, I might be a bit "paranoid" about this data. However, the historical patterns over the past two years have already proven: as soon as this balance starts to rise, BTC’s subsequent performance is usually less optimistic. This is the key indicator I want to focus on and discuss with everyone today.