2026-01-10 16:28:50

Prediction markets have recently caused quite a stir. A new account deposited $12,000 through a mixer protocol sanctioned by the US, directly betting that the US government would take action against Colombia before April. This move instantly caused the market odds to spike from 7% to 42%, although it later fell back to 9%. Still, the strategy behind this operation is truly thought-provoking.

The fund flow is quite clear: the mixer receives funds, then flows to new address 1, then to new address 2, and finally enters the prediction market platform. This account opened a total position of $4,200.

Interestingly, there's a backstory. Trump was previously very harsh on Colombian President Petro, even suggesting the possibility of military action. But everything changed—after a call on January 8, his stance shifted 180 degrees, and he called the visit to the White House "an immense honor."

Mystery funds are able to precisely time geopolitical events to place bets. Is this just a coincidence, or does someone have prior knowledge? Every movement of on-chain capital is telling a story—it's all about whether you understand how to read it.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

RektHunter

· 01-10 16:55

Are insider trades this obvious? 7% directly skyrocketed to 42%, isn't this basically writing "I know the inside scoop" on the chain? How careless can this tactic be? Even with mixers used, it's still exposed. Trump's 180-degree turn is too suspicious; it feels like someone had already placed bets in advance. $12,000 can move the market—that's the power of information asymmetry. Every transaction on the chain speaks; it just depends on who pays more attention. The timing of this bet was too perfect—definitely not a coincidence.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletGuardian

· 01-10 16:54

This operation is really unsustainable, the mixer is going all out... The odds jumped from 7% directly to 42%, who is so confident? The insider information is written all over their face. Every on-chain transaction is evidence. Let’s see who can connect this story to a conclusion. $4200 can move the entire market. This prediction platform is a bit too fragile. Petro’s attitude suddenly changed, and the timing is so perfectly aligned. Coincidence? I don’t buy it. Mixer + new wallet + political bets, this show is really well scripted. Who is this? Knowing the rhythm of American politics so well... I don’t believe it’s just a coincidence.

View OriginalReply0

MetaNeighbor

· 01-10 16:50

This operation clearly indicates that someone got insider information in advance. It's too outrageous. A 42% odds fluctuation, mixer + new address—this technique is too professional. Wait, isn't this just a variant of insider trading, but on the chain... To put it simply, someone knows Trump will pivot, and it's directly reflected in the market. Such incidents are becoming more and more frequent. Prediction markets have become a printing press for information asymmetry. With just $12,000, you can create such a big wave—on-chain gaming is truly wild.

View OriginalReply0

GasBandit

· 01-10 16:40

Wow... insider trading has even gone on-chain? Truly impressive --- Wait, 12,000 invested directly pushed up by 35%? How precise is this technique --- Mixer + new address + precise timing, typical information gap arbitrage, brother --- 42% dropped back to 9%, really just taking a cut and running, playing quite smoothly --- I just want to know who knew so far in advance that Trump would change his tone... --- No privacy on-chain, every transaction is evidence, just take your time to investigate --- If the SEC gets involved, it will be interesting haha --- Geopolitics + crypto betting, now you can invest in everything, right --- It's not a coincidence, someone definitely knows the inside story, others are just bystanders --- Brilliant, spend 12,000 to earn the spread, but the risk... hmm, a bit high

View OriginalReply0

SchrödingersNode

· 01-10 16:38

It's the same trick again. As soon as the mixer starts, you know someone is betting on insider information. This method is too obvious. Who can precisely time their bets at political turning points? If insider trading were so easy to trace on-chain, no one would dare to play it anymore. Trump's change in attitude might just mean the deal was already agreed upon. Anyway, I believe it. A 42% payout is really outrageous. How confident do you have to be? On-chain traceability is pretty good; at least it's much more transparent than traditional markets.

View OriginalReply0

BasementAlchemist

· 01-10 16:34

This move is truly brilliant, with the odds directly maxed out at 42%, indicating that someone really knows something This is the information gap, by the time we discuss on-chain, they've already placed their bets Mixers are like playing mahjong once they come in, no one can see clearly who is who, but the results are right there Trump's quick turnaround in this wave of flipping indicates there are indeed some surface-level words and private insider info The new address redirect is a textbook-level stealth technique If no one was informed in advance about this, I’d be eating my words On-chain has no privacy, but there are really many stealth techniques Odds skyrocketed from 7 to 42 and then dropped back, the people who got cut this time probably lost a lot The real smart move is to know first, the next smartest is to understand the on-chain story The White House "is extremely honored," which translates to being completely eaten alive The people betting this time are either insiders or reincarnated gamblers

View OriginalReply0