Recently, many people have been scared by the fluctuations of mainstream cryptocurrencies, but this actually indicates that everyone's focus is still on the surface of candlestick charts. The true investment logic should start from macroeconomics—trade data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury is the key to understanding subsequent capital flows.

Let's first discuss a common data misconception that is often overlooked. The trade deficit in October 2025 indeed narrowed to $29.4 billion, which is the lowest in 16 years and looks good. However, when looking at a longer timeline, the cumulative trade deficit for the first ten months of this year has already reached $782.8 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase. It is highly likely that the full year will set a second or third-highest deficit record in history. Simply put, occasional good data for one or two months is not very meaningful; the overall trend is the decisive factor.

What is behind the trade deficit? To put it plainly, it is the outflow of USD globally. The U.S. prints money to buy goods worldwide. These dollars do not disappear but settle as offshore USD circulating in the international market. Currently, with U.S. Treasury yields falling and U.S. stock valuations remaining high, these funds cannot find better outlets—real estate growth is sluggish, and bond market attractiveness is declining. As a result, flowing into high-risk, high-return crypto assets becomes a relatively rational choice.

However, it is important to emphasize that not all tokens can share in this liquidity dividend. Based on over five years of experience in the crypto market, the screening criteria generally include three aspects: First, examine the project's underlying technology and team background; projects with real technological accumulation and practical application scenarios are more worth paying attention to. Second, assess the token's ecosystem activity and actual use cases. Third, pay attention to the project's fundraising progress and the transparency of its product roadmap. Considering these dimensions comprehensively can help avoid falling into air projects.