A recent Chinese Meme coin has gone viral—24-hour increase of 171%, with its market cap once surpassing the $10 million mark. Is this surge driven by genuine demand or just hype? I checked the on-chain data and found some interesting insights.

According to data from Etherscan and Dune Analytics, this coin added over 5,000 new holder addresses in the past day, indicating rapid growth. But more importantly, whale movements—three large holders are secretly accumulating, holding a total of 15% of the supply. At the same time, trading volume soared by 300%, but the depth of the order book hasn't kept up, making the liquidity pool look somewhat shallow. Putting these data points together makes it clear: market sentiment is very hot, but the fundamentals are fragile.

What about the news side? The coin's explosion is closely related to celebrity effects, with social media discussions directly fueling market sentiment. But we need to be rational—Meme coins are essentially a community and emotion game. Without real value backing them, their volatility can be extremely wild. Looking at the broader market context, capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have recently slowed down, and the market is searching for new hotspots to channel funds. Meme coins have become the easiest vehicle for hype, serving both as a risk-hedging window and gambling chips.

My personal view is this: in the short term, this wave of Meme coin hype will likely drive the entire altcoin sector to follow suit, as market sentiment is already overheated. At this pace, a correction could happen within a week, especially for coins with such exaggerated gains—once profit-taking begins, the decline could be quite fierce.

But from a medium- to long-term perspective, on-chain data shows that long-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum are still increasing, with no signs of large-scale capitulation. This indicates that the overall bull market hasn't ended yet; we're just entering a phase of speculative rotation. From a commodities cycle perspective, this is a normal market evolution.

My advice is: don't be tempted by short-term gains, and avoid chasing FOMO at the top. Wait for a correction to consider deploying into projects with solid fundamentals. Remember, combining data and news is key to timing the market accurately.