**Peace Dawn Eases Hedging Anxiety, Precious Metals Market Falls into Bull-Bear Stalemate**

Last Friday, international gold prices surged strongly before quickly cooling off following news of peace negotiations. At the start of this week, gold's trend retreated from an early session gain of over 1% to a slight positive return, reflecting a clear shift in market sentiment amid improved geopolitical outlooks.

U.S. President (Volodymyr Zelenskiy) of Ukraine and President (Zelenskiy) of Ukraine have sent positive signals regarding progress in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, becoming a key trigger that suppresses safe-haven demand. U.S. envoy (Witkoff) stated that negotiations have made "many progress," and Ukraine's chief negotiator (Umerov) emphasized that the talks over the past two days have been "constructive and productive." Thanks to these constructive statements from both sides of the conflict, investors' geopolitical risk concerns have significantly eased. COMEX February gold futures closed only slightly higher by $6.9 to $4,335.2 per ounce, with the gain narrowing to 0.2%; spot gold prices stood at $4,305 per ounce.

**Safe-Haven Assets Under Pressure, Traders Await Key Data**

Gold's safe-haven attribute is temporarily under pressure, coinciding with another market force—upcoming U.S. economic data releases. This week, several important economic indicators delayed by the government shutdown will be released in quick succession, becoming the biggest concern for traders' current decision-making.

On Tuesday(December 16), the November non-farm payrolls report and October retail sales data will be released simultaneously. According to a Dow Jones survey, economists forecast only 50,000 new non-farm jobs in November, far below the 119,000 increase in September. On Thursday(December 18), the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced. These data directly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's future policy path, leading investors to reduce directional bets. Kitco Metals senior analyst (Wickoff) pointed out that progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine seems to be directly suppressing gold's safe-haven demand, while economic data uncertainties keep the market in a wait-and-see stance.

**Divergence in Precious Metals Intensifies, Diversified Investment Opportunities**

Interestingly, while gold's gains have narrowed, other precious metals show different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium prices have risen significantly, reflecting ongoing market capital seeking diversified allocation opportunities.

Specifically, COMEX March silver futures rose 2.6% to $63.589 per ounce; NYMEX January platinum futures increased 3.0% to $1,815.9 per ounce; NYMEX March palladium futures surged the most, up 5.2% to $1,623.1 per ounce. This divergence reveals the complex composition of the current precious metals market: gold's pure financial safe-haven attribute is limited by the peace dawn, while other industrial-use precious metals may be supported by different fundamental factors, demonstrating greater resilience and flexibility.

**Base Metals Market Shows Complex Divergence, USD Weakness Supports Copper Prices**

The performance of base metals also presents a tug-of-war scenario. Copper prices gained support from a weaker dollar, but most other varieties faced downward pressure.

ICE Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.15% to 98.25 points on the 15th, with the dollar's relative depreciation directly benefiting dollar-denominated commodities. London Metal Exchange LME 3-month copper rose 1.16% to $11,686 per ton; NYMEX March copper also increased 1% to $5.4120 per pound. However, other base metals generally declined, with aluminum futures flat, and lead, zinc, and nickel futures all falling, with nickel dropping the most at 2.22%. Copper prices hit a historic high of $11,952 per ton last week amid supply concerns but faced sell-offs this week due to worries over AI concept stocks.

**Unclear Federal Reserve Policy Outlook, Market Remains Cautious**

The long-term monetary policy outlook is another dimension for market observation. Currently, rumors suggest that White House economic advisor Hassett may succeed as Federal Reserve Chair, but this has been questioned by Trump camp figures, adding uncertainty.

According to CME FedWatch tool, as of the 15th, the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by one quarter point by January 28, 2026, is only 24.4%, with a 75.6% chance of holding rates steady. This reflects that, although markets expect a prolonged easing policy, expectations for an immediate policy shift are not strong.

**Tug-of-War Continues, Key Timing Approaching**

Currently, precious metals and base metals are in a delicate balance of forces. Geopolitical marginal easing has weakened traditional gold safe-haven demand, while the critical period of economic data releases causes traders to pause decision-making. As key U.S. economic data are officially released this week and further geopolitical negotiation news emerges, this balance will eventually be broken, potentially ushering in a new round of directional choices in precious and base metals markets. The current cautious stance is merely the market taking a deep breath before major data releases, with real market breakthroughs awaiting these "data anchoring" moments.