Will Bitcoin soar in 2026? Analysts assess what history and fundamentals say.

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Will Bitcoin soar in 2026? Analysts evaluate what history and fundamentals say. Original Link: As the year comes to a close, the outlook for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general is, at best, cautious. However, a positive surprise may be in store for investors in 2026, according to some analysts.

After a sustained drop from the peak of $126,080 on October 6, Bitcoin stabilized around $84,000 on November 22, signaling the end of prolonged selling pressure. The relative strength index (RSI), which measures the momentum of the underlying asset, fell below the oversold level of 30.

Since 2023, this has happened five times — and in all of them, the subsequent trajectory of Bitcoin has been upward. If history repeats itself, this pattern suggests that the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $170,000 in less than three months, according to an analysis by Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor.

“Unless you believe that the four-year cycle is still in effect, which we do not believe, this chart should remain relevant over time,” noted Bittel.

Other analysts recommend caution, considering these patterns as indicators of support rather than prediction. “These historical patterns provide useful context for market psychology, but I would treat them as conditionally optimistic rather than deterministic,” said Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix.

“The RSI falling below 30 usually signals capitulation and deleveraging, after which the price tends to stabilize and recover, but this does not guarantee the same trajectory will be repeated,” said Chen. “Projecting a rise to $170,000… depends heavily on macroeconomic liquidity, monetary policy, and overall risk appetite.”

A broader historical pattern also favors a recovery. For more than a decade, every year of decline for Bitcoin has been followed by a year of growth. With Bitcoin's year-to-date performance down about 5%, a negative close in 2025 would historically pave the way for a positive 2026.

On this point, Chen noted that it “highlights the cyclical mean reversion of Bitcoin, rather than an automatic upward acceleration.” Essentially, he said, these factors “support a constructive medium to long-term outlook, while the short-term path may still involve volatility and the need for additional validation.”

Bitcoin has risen 0.7% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading around $88,000, according to data from CoinGecko.

Focusing on the fundamentals

In addition to historical patterns, the fundamentals and institutional realities suggest a robust setup for the coming year.

“The recent weakness in the market is due to two transitory catalysts,” said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, citing “investors selling in anticipation of the four-year cycle” and ongoing fears of the “unwinding of leverage on October 10.” He believes that once these factors are overcome, a sustained rally will begin.

The macroeconomic environment itself can provide fuel. Hougan defines it as a “win-win situation,” where both economic strength and stimulus-driven weakness are seen as favorable factors for cryptocurrencies.

The most concrete optimistic argument lies in institutional adoption. Hougan called the trajectory of ETFs “phenomenally optimistic”, noting that “trillions of dollars” from large brokerages can now access the market, leading him to predict that 2026 will be “a record year for capital inflows”.

This growth could also lead cryptocurrencies to forge their own path. Hougan predicts a “lower” correlation with stocks as “cryptocurrency-specific factors,” such as tokenization and institutional adoption, become the main price drivers, signaling a maturing market that moves based on its own fundamentals.