Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn flags 'too chaotic' 2026 outlook for BTC as volatility falls and macro risks grow

Source: DefiPlanet Original Title: Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn flags ‘too chaotic’ 2026 outlook for BTC as volatility falls and macro risks grow Original Link:

QuickBreakdown

• Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn says 2026 could be one of Bitcoin’s hardest years to forecast despite a still bullish multi-year thesis.
• Options markets now imply almost equal odds for sharply different BTC price paths in 2026, highlighting vast institutional uncertainty.
• Galaxy expects structural adoption to deepen and keeps a $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2027 even if next year proves range-bound or “boring.”

Bitcoin Outlook Uncertainty Grows

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, warned that 2026 may be “too chaotic to predict” for Bitcoin, citing a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, political risk, and uneven momentum in the crypto market.

BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end.

His comments build on Galaxy Research’s December 18 report, “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which argues that Bitcoin remains in a bear phase and has yet to firmly reclaim bullish momentum above the key 100,000 to 105,000 dollar area.

Thorn noted that until Bitcoin can sustain trading above that zone, downside risk will linger into 2026 even after prior cycle highs. He pointed to broader macro variables—including the pace of AI-driven capital spending, the direction of U.S. monetary policy, and the impact of the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle as additional sources of forecast risk around crypto valuations.

Options Data Shows Wide BTC Ranges

Derivatives markets underline this uncertainty, with Bitcoin options pricing now implying similar probabilities for very different outcomes next year. Galaxy’s analysis highlights ranges such as roughly 70,000 to 130,000 dollars by mid-2026 and 50,000 to 250,000 dollars by year-end, suggesting institutions are hedging for large swings rather than a clear directional trend.

At the same time, Thorn emphasized that long-term Bitcoin volatility has been trending lower, partly due to institutional strategies like options overwriting and yield-generation programs that dampen extreme moves. He also pointed to a more equity-like “volatility smile,” where downside protection now trades richer than upside calls, a pattern more typical of mature macro assets than early-stage speculative markets.

Notably, Galaxy Digital issued the first U.S. commercial paper on the Solana public blockchain, facilitated by J.P. Morgan and backed by investors like certain major platforms and Franklin Templeton. This highlights a shift toward tokenization and greater efficiency in regulated capital markets, showcasing blockchain’s growing maturity for institutional security dealings.