#数字货币市场洞察 Recently, Vitalik dropped a prediction at Devconnect that’s been keeping people up at night—quantum computing might be able to break through the defenses of elliptic curve cryptography before the 2028 US election. Keep in mind, this technology is one of the very foundations holding up the entire crypto world.

As soon as he said this, the community immediately split into two camps.

On-chain data analyst Charles Edwards was the first to back him up, saying that top experts are already simulating the impact of quantum computing on BTC. He specifically emphasized that Vitalik’s “three-year window” isn’t just alarmist talk, and the industry can’t keep burying its head in the sand.

But physicist David M. Antonelli fired back directly. He pointed to the data, saying that even according to the most aggressive roadmaps from quantum computing giants like IBM, Google, and Quantinuum, by 2030 they’ll only have a few thousand physical qubits at best. But to actually break encryption algorithms? That would require millions of logical qubits, and there’s a huge technical gap in between.

Tom Lee also shared the news, without expressing an opinion, but this kind of “watching without commenting” speaks volumes—industry big shots are all observing from the sidelines.

The situation is pretty subtle right now: no one dares to guarantee whether something will happen in 2028. But one consensus is forming—the quantum threat isn’t about “if,” but “when.” Given the current pace of quantum computing development, the window of time the crypto industry has to prepare may be much shorter than most people think.

If protocols need to be upgraded, upgrade them. If research into quantum-resistant algorithms needs to be done, don’t delay. If something really does happen, it’ll be too late.