After the Fed's rate cut pace was disrupted, did you notice that the funding rates on on-chain perpetual contracts started "handing out red envelopes"?



Remember that crash in October?—Powell suddenly turned hawkish, and TSLA contracts were hammered to a discount against spot. At that time, the funding rate plunged to -0.12%. What does that mean? If you opened a $10,000 TSLA long position, you could pocket $12 every 8 hours just from the fees paid by shorts, simply by holding. If you kept it up all year, the annualized return would break 13%.

What's even better is that you don't have to bet on the direction at all. Just buy the spot and hedge the contract volatility, purely taking the funding rate spread—this is what real risk-free arbitrage should look like.

After the December rate cut expectations kicked in, the strategy flipped. AAPL contracts were pushed to a premium, and the funding rate jumped to +0.09%. A $5,000 short paired with a spot long would net you $4.5 per settlement cycle, and you could stack another layer of profit with platform fee rebates.

How do you time it? Keep a close watch on the 48 hours before and after FOMC meetings, and on NFP data release days. During these policy windows, funding rate volatility typically expands 2-3x, but avoid extreme market conditions—when rates go haywire, liquidation can happen faster than you can earn profits.

Beginner tips: stick to the top five US stock contracts by liquidity, keep leverage under 2x, and start with small positions to test the strategy. The policy dividend window only lasts a few days—if you miss it, just wait for the Fed's next move.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 9
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
MidnightMEVeatervip
· 1h ago
Good morning, it's 3 AM. Interest rates are like a cake in a dark pool—when Powell turns around, the crumbs just fall into your bowl. Earning a mindless 13% annualized return sounds like heaven, but in reality, you're just betting on when the central bank daddy will suddenly change his mind again.
View OriginalReply0
MemeTokenGeniusvip
· 1h ago
The fees were really generous this time. I didn't dare to touch that -0.12% in October, and now I kind of regret it after seeing others making easy money.
View OriginalReply0
MetaverseVagabondvip
· 6h ago
The fee arbitrage part is indeed great, but I have to disagree with you on the "risk-free" part—when extreme market conditions hit, you can still get liquidated. I suffered a loss myself back in October.
View OriginalReply0
GweiTooHighvip
· 12-05 10:11
The fee rate red envelope move is quite something, but I still think timing the Federal Reserve's rhythm is the key.
View OriginalReply0
HashRatePhilosophervip
· 12-05 10:10
The funding rates have indeed gone up this time. In October, it was easy money, and now it has reversed—it's the shorts' turn.
View OriginalReply0
ArbitrageBotvip
· 12-05 10:03
Fee rate red envelopes are really amazing, but I still think waiting for the right opportunity is more stable than taking the initiative.
View OriginalReply0
POAPlectionistvip
· 12-05 10:01
There are indeed a lot of fee rate red envelopes, but what I care more about is whether the liquidation speed can keep up with the pace of making money. NGL, it's a bit iffy.
View OriginalReply0
ProofOfNothingvip
· 12-05 09:54
Those days when the fee rates were inverted were truly free money, but with the market being so competitive now, those who could consistently profit from arbitrage have already won effortlessly.
View OriginalReply0
MoonRocketmanvip
· 12-05 09:47
The launch window truly opens only when the funding rate reverses, and the days when the RSI approaches extreme levels are when the fuel is at its peak. Let's wait for the next round of the Federal Reserve countdown.
View OriginalReply0
View More
  • Pin
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)