Recently, quite a few friends have asked me: USDT in the domestic OTC market has dropped to 6.92-6.95 RMB—is this a sign that whales are cashing out like crazy? Is BTC about to crash?

Let’s talk about what’s happening first. It’s true that USDT/RMB has fallen below the 7 yuan mark, with a discount of about 1.5%. The main reason is that OTC traders have paused services due to regulatory pressure, and some users are rushing to convert USDT to cash, causing a surge in selling and a sudden supply-demand imbalance.

But does this mean global big money is pulling out? I don’t think it’s that simple.

The OTC market is actually quite small compared to the entire crypto market. Just look at on-chain data—on December 4th, there was still a net inflow of 330,000 USDT, and the reserves have surpassed 60 billion. More importantly, Tether minted another 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain a few days ago to supplement liquidity, and on the same day, 87 million USDT flowed into a top exchange. All these signals suggest that money is still moving into exchanges, and might even be preparing for a dip buy.

So, the domestic OTC discount is more like local market noise and doesn’t represent global capital flows.

What’s next for the market? Personally, I think there’s unlikely to be a big drop in the short term. It’s more likely to consolidate at high levels (BTC may fluctuate in the 90k-95k range).

There are a few reasons: First, USDT reserves are still rising, and new tokens are being minted continuously, so liquidity is ample. Second, BTC open interest (OI) is relatively stable, and funding rates remain positive, indicating strong bullish sentiment with no signs of panic liquidation.

Of course, risks should be mentioned. If regulatory tightening continues and the OTC discount widens further, it could impact Asian trading volumes (though they account for less than 20%). The real warning signs would be: net outflows of USDT turning negative and a sharp drop in BTC open interest. If both happen at the same time, that’s when it’s time to consider defense.

To sum up: The USDT/RMB discount reflects domestic users’ cash-out pressure, not a global capital exit. In the short term, the market will likely continue consolidating at high levels, and there’s no evidence of a collapse yet.

I suggest everyone keep an eye on on-chain data, funding rates, and the size of the OTC discount. Don’t get spooked by volatility in a single market. Investing carries risk; make sure to assess it carefully.

Data updated as of December 5, 2025, for reference only 🚀