US stocks pump, Ethereum continues to fluctuate, possibly replicating the mid-2021 trend

The US stock market rose across the board on Tuesday, with technology stocks performing particularly well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased for the fourth consecutive trading day, as one tech giant’s market value surpassed that of another, regaining its status as the highest-valued publicly traded company in the world, currently valued at $3.45 trillion. Hong Kong stocks related to stablecoins continued to strengthen, with several companies in this sector seeing significant increases in stock prices.

An economist from an international bank predicts that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, but may choose to implement a substantial cut of 50 basis points at that time. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-time, not a sustained influence on the economy. In addition, the OECD has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for the United States to 1.6%, warning that the trade policies of a former political figure are dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely watching the May employment report set to be released this Friday to assess the economic situation.

An analyst stated that 2025 will be a key turning point for generative AI, transitioning from technological breakthroughs to widespread applications. Currently, AI is mainly used in the financial sector for traditional asset management and quantitative trading, but in the future, it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market through optimizing market-making strategies. Furthermore, building AI-enabled Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security auditing and digital content assetization, will promote the synergistic development of AI and the Web3 ecosystem.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, with a short-term upward trend. In terms of the political environment, both Poland and South Korea have elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies. Although market news is generally positive, there has been no significant rise in Bitcoin prices. A digital asset research director at a bank warned that currently 61 listed companies collectively hold 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If Bitcoin prices fall below 22% of these companies’ average purchase price, it could trigger forced sell-offs. Referring to a case in 2022 where a company sold 7,202 Bitcoins when the price was 22% below the cost price, if Bitcoin drops below $90,000, about half of the companies’ holdings may face the risk of losses. This indicates that although the corporate holding trend has increased buying pressure, it has also laid the groundwork for potential sell-off risks.

Ethereum has been relatively stable, oscillating around $2600 for 25 days. The US Ethereum ETF has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, with a certain asset management company holding about $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis shows that Ethereum may be entering a critical turning point, facing a choice between upward or downward movement. On-chain data indicates that a suspected whale or institution has purchased 108,278 Ether (approximately $283 million) via OTC. An OTC wallet of a certain digital asset company has withdrawn 89,000 ETH (approximately $234 million) from exchanges in the past 12 hours, and subsequently transferred a total of 108,278 ETH to a specific address. An analyst pointed out that Ethereum is trying to establish $2500 as a support level and solidify its position as the low point in the macro range of $2500-$4000. The current trend is similar to the green circle marked position in mid-2021, and if successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range-bound trading.

A certain research institution pointed out that although Bitcoin continues to break historical highs attracting institutional funds, the altcoin market has stagnated, with ongoing token unlocks and a lack of new narratives becoming bottlenecks to development. A certain public chain token has recently performed poorly, oscillating around 150 dollars. Its meme coin platform plans to raise 1 billion dollars through a token sale, with a valuation of 4 billion dollars. Although the official release time has not been confirmed, the platform’s social account suggests it may go live in two weeks, which could lead to outflow pressure on the entire ecosystem.

It is worth noting that early this morning there were reports that a former political figure would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application to encourage supporters to buy Meme coins, which led to a brief pump of 40% for a certain NFT trading platform’s token. However, the relevant parties later denied any association with the project, causing the token to retrace nearly 20% from its peak.

Key Data (as of June 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (Year-to-date +12.73%), Daily spot trading volume $25.243 billion
• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (Year-to-date -21.69%), daily spot trading volume is $14.58 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 57 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.1%, Ether 9.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-to-short ratio: 1.0247
• Sector rise and fall: AI down 2.1%; Meme down 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $148 million, including $25.52 million in BTC, $35.96 million in Ether, and $8.75 million in SOL.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (106908.13 USD), lower channel line (104791.13 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2588.05 USD), lower channel line (2536.80 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flow (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending a 3-day outflow)
• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (net inflow for 12 consecutive days)

Today’s Outlook

• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A certain trading platform will delist the perpetual contracts JUSDT, SWEATUSDT, PUFFERUSDT, MOVRUSDT, and SUNDOGUSDT on June 5.
• Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens on June 4 at 8 AM, which is 1.15% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.1 million.
• Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on June 4th, which is 0.42% of the current circulating supply, worth about 1.7 million USD.
• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens on June 4 at 8:00 AM, which is 0.23% of the current circulation, valued at about $1.6 million.
• Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 81.55 million tokens on June 5th at 8 PM, which accounts for 69.37% of the current circulation, valued at about 46.9 million USD.

ADP employment figures in the US for May are ( million ) (June 4, 20:15)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 6.2 / Expected: 11

The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 is ( million ) (June 5, 20:30)

• Actual: Pending Release / Previous Value: 24 / Expected: 23.5

Top 500 market cap biggest rises today: 0×0.ai (0×0) rose 67.69%, Acet (ACT) rose 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) rose 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) rose 22.03%, Animecoin (ANIME) rose 21.70%.

Hot News

• Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $109 million yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflows.
• It is suspected that a certain institution has purchased over 100,000 ETH through OTC and now holds nearly 140,000 ETH.
• A certain asset management company’s Bitcoin spot ETF has made it into the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching 72.4 billion USD in just 1.4 years since its establishment.
• The MELANIA project team transferred 150 million tokens, with 20 million of them sent to the Wintermute address.
• The Spanish coffee chain Vanadi plans to invest over $1.1 billion to purchase Bitcoin, transforming into a “Bitcoin-first” company.
• A former political figure’s family denied involvement in the related wallet project, while a certain NFT platform responded that it was an official collaboration.
• CEO of a tech company: Cleared out cryptocurrency holdings at the end of last year, profiting 570 million yuan, with 80% distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A stablecoin company transferred over 37,000 BTC to Twenty One Capital, worth nearly $4 billion.
• The Sonic airdrop will launch in June, with 25% released instantly and the remaining 75% unlocked linearly in the form of NFTs.
• The CEO of a certain project steps down, and a former executive of a certain trading platform takes over.
• Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of “Stride” preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
• Insiders: A certain project plans to raise $1 billion through a token sale, with a valuation of $4 billion.
• Ethereum co-founder claims to be in talks with sovereign wealth funds for infrastructure collaboration