2月3日消息，2月初比特币（BTC）开局承压，风险偏好降温、资金面趋紧，使BTC价格一度跌至8万美元下方。不过，多项链上与资金指标显示，抛压正在缓和，阶段性修复的概率正在累积。虽然尚不足以确认趋势反转，但这些变化为“比特币可能不会长期低于8万美元”提供了现实支撑。
首先，美国市场需求出现回温迹象。某美国主流平台的比特币溢价指数虽仍处负区间，但已明显回升。该指标衡量本土买盘相对全球的强弱，历史上由负转正往往伴随价格修复。投资者 Ted 指出，近期低点已被抬高，说明买需在悄然恢复。
其次，BTC价格已接近甚至短暂低于美国比特币ETF的平均持仓成本，链上统计显示该“机构成本价”约在7.9万美元附近。过往经验表明，这一区域很少被长期跌破，反而常成为中期支撑带。分析师 Whale Factor 认为，当价格低于机构综合成本时，抛售意愿会下降，反而为耐心资金提供更优切入区。
第三，网络层面释放积极信号。瑞士研究机构 Swissblock 观察到，网络增长与流动性在2月初同步回升。类似的“共振”曾出现在2021年大行情启动前，意味着生态活跃度与资金供给正在改善，或为下一阶段的上行创造条件。
需要注意的是，也有谨慎声音。Galaxy Digital 的 Alex Thorn 提醒，若宏观流动性继续收紧，BTC价格仍可能回探长期均线附近。但综合当前链上数据、ETF成本带与需求回暖迹象，比特币8万美元更像是重要缓冲区，而非长期底部的下沿。
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