Prediction Market

The team behind the P2P.me decentralized trading platform disclosed that it opened positions on the Polymarket prediction market related to its recent capital raise. The team opened the positions 10 days before the raise went live, wagering whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising t

In brief ICE has invested another $600 million into Polymarket, fulfilling its commitment made in October. Rival Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, outpacing Polymarket's current valuation. Prediction markets face mounting regulatory pressure, with lawmakers

Kalshi has received approval for margin trading, aiming to attract institutional investors. The license enables it to act as a futures commission merchant, pending CFTC approval. This shift could enhance trading potential in prediction markets, facing competition and regulatory challenges.

In brief California public officials are banned via executive order from using inside information to make money on prediction markets. The ban extends to state officials and appointees using information to help others from profiting, as well. The order follows continued scrutiny from

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said Friday it completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, deepening its bet on prediction markets as a new area of growth for exchange operators. The company also said it expects to

能源分析师警告称，若胡塞武装重新袭击红海航运，石油市场将面临更大动荡，可能导致全球石油供应削减和油价上涨。沙特正在将原油转移至红海港口以降低影响，但若袭击持续，可能导致日产量受限，并迫使沙特与其他国家减产。

3月28日，胡塞武装首次向以色列发射导弹，声称打击敏感军事设施。预测平台显示，以色列在2026年前对也门攻击的概率上升至60%。分析人士担忧若曼德海峡被封，将影响中东至欧洲和亚洲的能源运输。

Polymarket与Parti.com达成战略合作，推出将实时预测市场整合至直播体验的产品。主播和观众可直接在Parti.com上发现和交易Polymarket的市场，同时推出Earn Program，让创作者从观众交易中获利。此外，还将推出Boutique Culture Markets，扩展文化热点事件的预测市场。

加州州长纽森签署法令，禁止行政官员利用内幕消息在预测市场牟利。声明指出，部分官员在军事行动前进行精准押注，获利数十万至百万美元，严重影响公平性。这一措施旨在遏制公共服务滥用为私人利益。

最近一周的美伊战情进展正在不断升级。 美国第 82 空降师取消「联合战备训练中心」轮训、通常海运的第 82 战斗航空旅用运输机空运、驻中东美军基地血库储备增加 500%、全球最大的美国国防部海外医院——德国兰德斯图尔医疗中心——暂停部分民用服务。 上次出现这套组合拳，还是在 2003 年美军入侵伊拉克前夕。 就在这种气氛最紧张的时候，特朗普突然发帖称美伊双方进行了「非常非常好且富有成效的对话」，并宣布美国将暂停对伊朗能源基础设施的军事打击五天。北京时间 3 月 27 日凌晨，特朗普再次发帖称将暂停打击延长至 4 月 6 日。 这种客观事实与特朗普

研究显示，Columbia法学院与海法大学的研究人员分析Polymarket平台的交易数据，发现超过21万笔可疑交易带来1.43亿美元利润，这些交易被定义为“知情”交易。研究采用五项标准筛选出大额押注账户，主要集中在2024年美国大选、联储决议及体育赛事。研究方法受到质疑，作者承认可能存在偏差。同时，Polymarket已禁止利用窃取信息进行交易，但身份信息收集不明确。

Thị trường dự đoán các sự kiện tương lai đã lần đầu tiên vượt mốc 20 tỷ USD khối lượng giao dịch mỗi tháng, trong bối cảnh hoạt động tăng vọt nhờ các yếu tố địa chính trị và chính trị Mỹ. Theo báo cáo từ công ty

Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.

美国众议院通过一项临时国土安全拨款法案，旨在结束政府停摆，资金维持至5月22日。但预计参议院将否决，可能延长停摆。相关关闭概率在市场交易中大幅上升。

The Democratic Party is gaining an edge ahead of the 2028 U.S. presidential election, with a record 57% chance of winning. This shift comes amid declining support for the Republican Party, largely due to negative public reaction to U.S. military actions in Iran.

洲际交易所向Polymarket追加6亿美元投资，总额达16.4亿美元。特朗普强调比特币的重要性，易理华表示加密市场四年表现不佳。美国计划公布稳定币收益条款草案，Ripple CEO称《CLARITY法案》或推迟至5月。加州禁止公职人员利用内幕信息交易。加密行业进入“衬衫时代”，区块链与AI融合推动发展。Lido提议回购LDO代币，Ripple与Stellar创始人共投入10亿美元研发AGI。

P2P.me 团队承认在 Polymarket 上进行了关于融资目标的押注，未及时披露该行为。团队将清算所有相关头寸并退回收益，强调 MetaDAO 不知情，并计划制定相关政策。

加利福尼亚州州长Gavin Newsom签署行政命令，禁止州任命公职人员利用非公开信息在预测市场中获利，强调维护政府诚信与公众信任，控诉近期内部人员内幕交易问题。

The team behind the P2P.me decentralized trading platform disclosed that it opened positions on the Polymarket prediction market related to its recent capital raise. The team opened the positions 10 days before the raise went live, wagering whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising t

In brief ICE has invested another $600 million into Polymarket, fulfilling its commitment made in October. Rival Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, outpacing Polymarket's current valuation. Prediction markets face mounting regulatory pressure, with lawmakers