Gate News 消息，比特币安全研究者Justin Drake最新披露，两项关于量子计算与密码学的研究取得关键进展，可能重塑加密资产安全格局。其中一篇由Google Quantum AI团队发布，通过优化Shor算法，使破解基于secp256k1椭圆曲线的签名成为理论可行。在约1000个逻辑量子比特条件下，结合低电路深度设计，未来高性能量子计算机或可在数分钟内恢复私钥，对比特币和以太坊构成潜在威胁。
另一项研究来自初创公司Oratomic，其团队结合中性原子量子计算架构，对物理层进行优化，提出约26,000个物理量子比特即可完成相同破解任务，较此前方案效率提升约40倍。不过，该路径运行速度较慢，单次计算可能需要约10天。
Justin Drake指出，这两项成果分别优化了量子计算“逻辑层”与“物理层”，叠加后显著降低攻击门槛。他预计，到2032年，量子计算机具备破解部分公开密钥的概率或达到10%。虽然2030年前出现成熟密码学级量子计算机（CRQC）的可能性仍较低，但行业已进入必须提前准备的阶段。
从技术细节看，优化后的Shor算法仅需约1亿个Toffoli门，运行时间约1000秒，并可通过并行计算进一步压缩至几分钟级别。与此同时，量子计算架构呈现“快时钟”与“慢时钟”分化，前者适合高速破解，后者在成本与扩展性方面具备优势。
值得注意的是，此类研究已开始采用零知识证明隐藏关键细节，显示算法优化可能逐步进入受限披露阶段。尽管比特币PoW短期内不受Grover算法影响，但ECDSA与Schnorr签名机制正成为潜在风险焦点。
在当前环境下，后量子密码学研发或将加速推进。对于加密市场而言，这不仅是技术演进问题，更关乎长期安全模型的重构。
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