Polymarket:伊朗停火概率仅3%,油价飙升冲击比特币走势

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Gate News 消息,预测市场数据显示,围绕伊朗停火谈判的预期已明显转向悲观。Polymarket 基于超过1.03亿美元交易量给出的最新概率显示,由 Donald Trump 设定的周二停火最后期限成功率仅为3%,市场几乎一致认为短期内难以达成协议。

从博弈进展来看,伊朗已拒绝由巴基斯坦斡旋、埃及和土耳其参与推动的45天停火方案,并提出更长期的政治与经济条件,包括解除制裁与永久结束敌对行动。特朗普方面则明确表示相关回应“不可接受”,并坚持原定时间表不变,进一步压缩谈判空间。

预测市场的时间结构也反映出冲突可能延续。数据显示,到4月15日停火概率仅约15%,至4月底升至29%,而到6月30日才接近59%。与此同时,关于霍尔木兹海峡航运恢复的合约概率仅为14%,显示能源运输中断风险仍被高度定价。

能源市场预期同步走强。另一项关于WTI原油是否在4月触及120美元的预测概率已升至77%,暗示交易员普遍押注油价维持高位运行。在此背景下,全球宏观环境面临通胀与地缘风险叠加压力。

加密市场同样受到外溢影响。比特币与以太坊等资产在风险偏好下降阶段表现承压,资金更倾向流向黄金与能源等传统避险方向。若冲突持续时间超预期,宏观流动性与市场情绪变化仍将成为加密资产价格的重要变量。

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