2月24日消息，在美国拟推进新一轮全球贸易关税政策的不确定性加剧背景下，比特币价格跌破6.5万美元关键心理关口，市场风险偏好明显降温。数据显示，比特币从周一高点约66,465美元回落至盘中低点62,952美元，阶段跌幅接近5%，较年内高点累计回撤约35%，资金情绪趋于谨慎。
此次下行与特朗普政府拟对多国加征10%关税（并可能通过行政命令上调至15%）的政策预期密切相关。历史经验显示，贸易摩擦升级往往加剧加密市场波动。市场仍记得2025年美国对中国实施高关税后，两个月内加密总市值显著缩水，比特币对宏观冲击的敏感度再次成为焦点。
除关税风险外，地缘政治紧张局势同样压制投资信心。有关美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动的消息持续发酵，使避险资金更倾向流向黄金等传统资产，而非数字资产，这削弱了“比特币避险属性”的市场叙事。与此同时，跌破65000美元触发密集止损与连环清算，过去24小时全市场清算额约3.69亿美元，其中比特币清算接近1.52亿美元，杠杆多头集中出局进一步放大波动。
资金面也出现明显转弱迹象。比特币现货ETF单日录得约2.038亿美元净流出，机构资金短期呈现防御姿态，未能对价格形成有效托底。从技术结构看，BTC日线已形成双顶形态叠加看跌三角旗，MACD接近下破零轴，Aroon Down高位运行，显示空头仍占主导。
若空头持续施压，60000美元将成为下一关键心理支撑位，也是双顶量度跌幅的理论目标区域。一旦该位置失守，市场可能进一步下探50000美元区间。短期来看，比特币价格走势、宏观政策预期、ETF资金流向及衍生品清算数据，将共同决定2026年BTC是否进入更深层调整阶段。
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