1月28日消息，比特币（BTC）在1月25日触及阶段性低点后出现技术性反弹，截至发稿时价格回升约3.74%，报89,300美元附近。此前，美国总统特朗普在与北约秘书长 Mark Rutte 会晤后表示，短期内不会加征新的关税，这一表态在一定程度上缓解了宏观层面的不确定性情绪，也为风险资产提供了喘息空间。
不过，市场结构并未出现实质性改善。数据显示，巨鲸地址的资金余额持续上升，而中小规模持有者则逐步退出市场，资金分化特征明显。尽管地缘政治紧张有所降温，但比特币要在9万美元上方站稳，仍高度依赖持续且强劲的现货资金流入。即将到来的美联储公开市场委员会会议，也可能进一步放大价格波动。
多位链上分析师对当前行情持谨慎态度。CryptoQuant 分析师 Julio Moreno 指出，多个曾被视为“周期顶部指南”的经典模型正在相继失效，包括 S2F、幂律模型、M2 流动性指标以及商业周期指标。他认为，市场不断更换叙事来强化多头信念，却忽视了数据本身所反映的趋势——比特币仍处在熊市环境中。
分析师 Axel Adler Jr 同样警告，加密市场的寒意正在加深。与2017年和2021年周期相比，本轮比特币在彩虹图上的最高位置仅停留在“积累”区间，远未触及历史意义上的极端高估区域。这意味着，若熊市判断成立，当前周期的价格结构可能已明显偏离过往规律。
与此同时，曾多次精准捕捉顶部的 Pi 周期指标也尚未给出卖出信号，进一步加剧了市场分歧。除非比特币真的在2026年冲向15万美元以上的新高，否则多项指标之间的错位，或预示着一个更复杂、也更漫长的调整阶段仍在展开。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Articoli correlati
Traditional Brokerage to Launch Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading in Coming Weeks at 0.75% Fee
A traditional brokerage is set to launch spot cryptocurrency trading for retail clients, offering Bitcoin and Ethereum access. The service will include multiple trading platforms, a 0.75% fee, and additional crypto assets planned for the future, reflecting a trend of traditional finance entering the crypto space.
GateNews37m fa
Bhutan Sells $18.46M Bitcoin as Price Nears $74k Resistance
The Royal Government of Bhutan transferred approximately 250 BTC worth $18.46 million in the past 24 hours, according to on-chain data from Arkham, continuing a broader pattern of reduced Bitcoin holdings. The transfers included 162 BTC and 69.7 BTC sent to new wallet addresses within a short
CryptoFrontier56m fa
Bitcoin's BIP-361 Quantum Fix Splits Community Over Address Freezing
A proposed Bitcoin improvement to address quantum vulnerability has divided the cryptocurrency community over whether to freeze legacy addresses, including those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. The BIP-361 proposal, which went live on April 14, has sparked debate between prominent figures including
CryptoFrontier2h fa
Zonda Exchange Discloses 4,500 BTC Cold Wallet as Private Keys Remain Untransferred
Zonda, a Polish crypto exchange, revealed a cold wallet with 4,503 BTC amid a withdrawal crisis. CEO Przemysław Kral addressed fund misappropriation allegations and promised legal action against false claims, emphasizing that private keys were never transferred due to the former CEO's disappearance.
GateNews2h fa
Ben McKenzie Slams Bitcoin on Jon Stewart Show
Actor Ben McKenzie appeared on The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart on Aug. 14 in a segment titled "The Other Side of Bitcoin: Crypto Corruption," where he delivered a sharp critique of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry. McKenzie, known for his film and television work, has become a
CryptoFrontier2h fa
BTC 15分钟小幅上涨0.46%：机构资金外流与宏观避险情绪共振驱动
2026-04-16 15:00 至 15:15（UTC），BTC在15分钟内录得+0.46%收益率，价格波动区间为73939.7至74440.0 USDT，振幅为0.68%。该时间窗口内市场关注度上升，短时波动加剧，资金流动特征明显改变。
本次异动的主要驱动力是大额资金持续流出交易所，根据链上数据，24小时净流量为-14,408.84枚BTC，主要集中在超过100万美元的大额转账区间（尤其>
GateNews3h fa
