Foresight News 消息，Wintermute 发文表示，比特币似乎在突破过去 50 日窄幅交易区间后，正步入上行通道。上周市场格局已变。自 11 月以来，比特币首次基于真实资金流（而非杠杆交易）突破区间。ETF 需求回归，通胀环境有利，加密货币也开始迎头赶上整体风险资产的涨势。周一的暴跌虽剧烈但属健康调整。杠杆迅速出清，市场未陷入恶性循环，这是积极信号。当前问题在于，关税风波究竟是「虚张声势」还是会演变为实质性政策。市场倾向于前者，年初至今，美股和美元仍上涨，利率也未重新定价。
短期需关注周二开盘及周五 PCE 数据。若比特币本周能守住 9 万美元出头的低位，且 ETF 资金持续流入，则突破行情有望延续；若因后续抛售跌破 9 万美元，则 11 月以来的区间将再度成为阻力位。目前来看，买盘力量似乎真实存在。
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