Vitalik：预测市场是社交媒体的「解药」，可化解情绪化话题的疯狂观点

GateNews

2025-12-21 02:06:26

ETH-3,7%

BlockBeats 消息，12 月 21 日，以太坊创始人 Vitalik Buterin 在 Farcaster 发文表示，预测市场是应对情绪化话题上疯狂观点的良药，并使用两个截图举例：马斯克此前发帖称英国内战「不可避免」，而预测市场 Polymarket 上「2024 年英国会发生内战吗？」市场中只有 3% 的概率（Vitalik 认为 3% 仍过高，因部分押注者下注拉高概率）。Vitalik 称社交媒体上很多用户夸张地声称「某件事肯定会发生」以制造恐慌或吸引注意力，但并不为此负责；而预测市场则有真金白银的押注，更趋向于反映真实概率，能对抗这些「疯狂观点」。Vitalik 随后详细阐述了对预测市场的总体看法：相比社交媒体（制造恐慌无需负责）和主流媒体（标题党），预测市场更有「求真」激励。说真话能获得真实奖励，说谎则有很强的经济惩罚。在发现夸张新闻后查询 Polymarket 发现概率极低，可以令人冷静，反之也能避免虚假希望。预测市场是社交媒体的「解药」，能提供更理性、更有责任感的公众意见聚合方式。

View Source

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.