BlockBeats 消息，12 月 18 日，据 The Block 报道，Derive 创始人 Nick Forster 表示，交易员已明显转向防御性结构配置，30 天期比特币隐含波动率已升至接近 45%，而偏度维持在约 -5%；更长期的偏度在明年第一、第二季度同样锚定在这一水平。围绕即将到来的到期日，市场仓位呈现出明显的两极分化。在 10 万美元和 12 万美元行权价处，看涨期权持仓不断累积，表明仍有部分交易员押注比特币可能出现一波强劲的反弹。但整体资金流向显示出更强的谨慎情绪。Forster 指出，空头正在 8.5 万美元行权价附近积累「相当规模的看跌期权敞口」，以防比特币短期内跌破该关键水平。他补充称，期权隐含概率仍反映出严峻的市场环境：市场仅给予比特币触及 10 万美元约 30% 的概率，而重新收复历史高点的概率只有约 10%。
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