Recently, I've noticed quite a few traders in the community discussing the potential impact of Trump's energy policy on the crypto market. Rather than a sudden policy shift, this is more of a pragmatic choice forced by the reality of America's energy production overcapacity.

**The Essential Transformation of Energy Strategy**

The US crude oil daily production capacity has broken through 13.5 million barrels, hitting an all-time high. Sounds impressive, but the problem is that domestic refining capacity is shrinking, inventory is piling up, and shale oil producers are being squeezed hard by costs and prices. In this context, extending diplomatic overtures is essentially about finding outlets for excess production capacity. Simultaneously, by playing the energy trade card, the US can break the tightness of China-Russia energy cooperation and reshape the global oil and gas trading landscape. This isn't an act of benevolence, but standard geopolitical maneuvering — energy is a weapon, and the dollar-oil cycle must continue.

**Oil Prices, Capital Flows, and Market Dynamics**

In the short term, oil prices will face pressure. If China and Russia do increase imports of American crude, global supplies will loosen, and Brent crude might hover in the $70-85 per barrel range. However, OPEC+ (especially Saudi Arabia) will certainly not sit idle and will protect market share and prices through production cuts. A new balance will gradually form.

There's an interesting phenomenon here: if energy trade shifts toward a dual settlement system of US dollars and Chinese yuan (Russian oil transactions have already started doing this), demand for stablecoins and RWA tokens will rise accordingly. Look at the green electricity tokenization case from Xotech — it's already demonstrated the possibility of energy assets going on-chain. The real-world assets (RWA) tokenization track may be seeing a wave of new application deployments.

**Where Are the Opportunities On-Chain**

Energy trading-related tokens may benefit — as oil trading activity increases, related transaction settlement demands will grow. Stablecoins' usage frequency in international energy trade may further increase, especially in cross-border settlement scenarios. Energy asset tokenization projects in the RWA track, if they can solve compliance and liquidity issues, have considerable long-term potential.

Of course, all of this is premised on policies actually pushing forward in this direction, and market expectations need to adjust accordingly. But from a macro perspective, the new geopolitical energy landscape is indeed opening windows for certain sub-segments of the crypto market.