Возвращение аппетита к риску на Уолл-стрит, изменение ожиданий по снижению ставок Федеральной резервной системой — полный обзор экономических данных и политических тенденций на следующей неделе

【BlockBeats】Entering the first complete trading week of 2026, global assets are advancing in tandem, and Wall Street’s risk appetite has clearly recovered. This week, the S&P 500 index rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index for small-cap stocks surged even more dramatically, reaching 4.6%. Even more striking is the passive fund phenomenon—Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) absorbed $10 billion in just a few days, a flow rate that is indeed rare for passive funds. This opening momentum suggests a potentially strong start to the year.

However, in the coming week, some key data points warrant close attention. On Tuesday evening at 21:30, the US will release December unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate. Wednesday will similarly see releases at 21:30, including November retail sales monthly rate, PPI year-over-year/monthly rates, and Q3 current account data. Thursday continues with hard data at 21:30—initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, January New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, and November import price index monthly rate.

What deserves even more attention is the Fed’s shifting stance. Next week, Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, with the key signal being: before the current chairman’s successor officially takes office, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates again. Bank of America’s Global Research Strategy team explicitly stated that last week’s data has reinforced this judgment. This suggests the rate-cutting window may be narrowing.

Additionally, geopolitical factors should not be overlooked. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with Danish and Greenlandic officials next week; these diplomatic moves could trigger market fluctuations. Meanwhile, the situation in Iran—instability sparked by anti-government demonstrations including those in the capital Tehran—could potentially impact global risk sentiment in the short term. Overall, next week presents both the test of economic data and uncertainties from policy and geopolitical factors, with markets likely facing further challenges.