Novo líder do Irão, Moqtada al-Hassan al-Hassan: Para onde levará uma linha dura a guerra?

Original | Odaily 星球日报（@OdailyChina）

作者｜jk

Local time 8 March, Iran experts committee officially announced that Mojtaba Khamenei, aged 56, has been elected as the third Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This appointment occurred less than two weeks after his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israel airstrike on 28 February, and is the first family succession of supreme power in Iran’s history.

Crisis moment, hurried succession

On 28 February 2026, former Supreme Leader Khamenei’s residence in Tehran was targeted in a joint Israeli and US airstrike, resulting in the death of about 40 senior Iranian officials. Following confirmation of Khamenei’s assassination, Iran established a temporary leadership committee under Article 111 of the constitution, jointly led by President Pahlavi, Judiciary Head Mohseni-Ejei, and Guardian Council representative Ali Reza Alavi.

On 3 March, the experts committee reportedly was bombed in Qom, raising concerns that the election process might be hindered. However, the 88-member clergy expert committee ultimately voted on the 8th to select Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, and issued a statement calling on all Iranians, especially the elite scholars of seminaries and universities, to swear allegiance and maintain national unity.

Mojtaba Khamenei, source: BBC

Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Born in 1969 in Mashhad, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ali Khamenei. His childhood coincided with his father’s rise as a revolutionary figure opposing the Pahlavi dynasty, and the turbulent years of the 1979 Islamic Revolution profoundly shaped his political background. In religious education, Mojtaba studied under the late Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Moussavi Yazdi, a conservative theologian known for advocating a hardline stance and publicly declaring that “killing Iranian youth promoting Western immoralities” is doctrinally justified.

At 17, Mojtaba joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, participating in combat during the Iran-Iraq War at the Habilb camp. Analysts describe this camp as “a highly ideologically charged unit,” commanded by one of the founders of Hezbollah. Many comrades from this unit later became senior officials in Iran’s security and intelligence systems, laying an important network foundation for his subsequent power accumulation.

After his father became Supreme Leader in 1989, Mojtaba became one of his most important aides. Over the years, he has remained active within the core circle of the Supreme Leader’s office, with his influence significantly increasing after the 2009 Green Movement protests. US diplomatic cables (released via WikiLeaks) referred to him as “the real power behind the robe.” In 2019, the US Treasury sanctioned him for allegedly aiding his father’s ambitions to destabilize the region and suppress dissent domestically, also revealing that Khamenei had delegated some leadership responsibilities to him.

Contrasting his political stature, Mojtaba has almost never appeared publicly: he has never given a public speech, never led Friday prayers, and never made political statements, so many ordinary Iranians have never heard his voice. It is also reported that he has accumulated a vast economic network across multiple countries, allegedly mobilizing billions of dollars through insiders and partners linked to Iranian authorities.

Mojtaba is now married, with at least one son and one daughter. His wife is the daughter of former Iranian Parliament Speaker Haddad-Adel.

Hardline continuation, international reactions divided

Mojtaba’s election is widely interpreted as a signal that Iran’s hardliners remain firmly in power under extreme pressure. Analysts point out that, given his deep ties with the Revolutionary Guard and security apparatus, it is highly unlikely that Iran will reach a ceasefire with the US and Israel in the short term. Lebanese American University public policy researcher Rami Khouri described the appointment as a “contemptuous gesture,” signaling to the US and Israel that attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime will fail.

Domestically, Iranian President Pahlavi said the appointment heralds a “new era of national dignity and strength”; the Revolutionary Guard issued a statement pledging allegiance to the new leader and expressing readiness to obey his commands; Speaker Ghalibaf also called on Iranians to follow the new leader as a “religious and national duty.”

On the international stage, reactions are sharply divided. Russian President Putin expressed “steadfast support” for Mojtaba’s appointment, while China explicitly opposed any actions against the new Supreme Leader. US President Trump publicly declared Mojtaba’s appointment “unacceptable,” warning in an interview with ABC that “if the new leader is not recognized by the US, he will not last long.” Israel’s Defense Forces also issued warnings, stating that any successor to Khamenei would be considered a target.

Market predictions: can Mojtaba hold onto power?

Following Mojtaba Khamenei’s official appointment, decentralized prediction markets platform Polymarket quickly saw multiple markets related to Iran’s situation, with traders betting on the political fate of the new leader.

“Will the Iranian leadership change before a specified date?” This market opened on the evening of 8 March, with total trading exceeding $530,000. Data shows significant variation in traders’ assessments of the short-term likelihood of Mojtaba being “removed from the center of power”: as of 13 March, the “Yes” probability is only 11%; by 31 March, it rises to 33%; and by 30 April, it reaches 45%. If the timeline extends to the end of the year (31 December), the “Yes” probability is as high as 69%. This indicates that over two-thirds of market participants believe Mojtaba will not be in actual power by the end of 2026.

Will the Iranian leadership change before a specified date? Source: Polymarket

“Who will lead Iran at the end of 2026?” Another market with a total trading volume over $1.42 million, where Mojtaba Khamenei currently holds a 32% chance, but this figure itself shows limited confidence in his continued rule. Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi ranks second at 17%, current President Pahlavi at 10%, and “no head of state” (regime collapse or power vacuum) at 5%.

“Can Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?” This market’s total trading volume is close to $490,000, with a current price of 18%, down more than 26 percentage points from previous highs.