⚠️ This decline is not solely due to the typical risk release associated with gold; US software stocks are experiencing a "silent collapse." On the surface, the Nasdaq remains volatile near its all-time highs, and the tech index still looks vibrant; but if you zoom in, you'll notice something very unusual—many traditional software companies are simultaneously hitting multi-year record lows in weekly declines. This is not an isolated incident but a structural revaluation of value.

1. The problem is not valuation but the "end of narratives"
Over the past decade, the rise of US software stocks was not complicated; fundamentally, it was the convergence of three forces:
- Capital: Long-term low interest rates made future cash flows almost risk-free
- Business Model: SaaS subscription models packaged uncertain revenues into "predictable lifetime value"
- Industry Stage: During the early cloud adoption phase, the market was willing to pay a premium for "certainty of growth"

This created an era of dividends: > As long as you are a software company, ARR is still growing, and the story is clear, profitability becomes less important.
This logic worked very well in the past. But now, it is failing.

2. The true destructive power of AI: not replacing jobs, but flattening the value curve
Many underestimate AI’s impact depth on the software industry. AI is not just about "improving efficiency"; it makes many expensive software functionalities rapidly approach zero marginal cost.
When capabilities become "on-demand," and functionalities no longer require long-term subscriptions, the moat supporting SaaS high valuations begins to crack.
This is why—after the release of new-generation models like Claude Cowork AI—the market reaction has been so swift.
It’s not just emotional volatility; it’s capital voting with its feet.

3. Capital is shifting, and the direction is very clear
You will notice a distinct phenomenon: traditional application-layer software remains under pressure, while capital flows are highly concentrated in a few areas:
- Computing power, chips, AI infrastructure, platform-level models

This is no coincidence. As application layers begin to "commoditize," what remains truly scarce are the underlying capabilities and platform control.
This is also why: even if some software stocks have fallen to what seem like "cheap" levels, the market continues to ignore them.

4. The brutal reality: cheapness is no longer a reason to buy
In the old cycle, "falling a lot" often meant opportunity.
But under the new paradigm, this experience is failing.
If a company’s:
- Product features are being rapidly flattened by AI
- Business model lacks new pricing power
- Growth narrative cannot transition into the AI era

Then, a stock’s decline is likely not just emotional but a reflection of future expectations already priced in.

5. This is a divergence, not a crisis
Finally, an important note: this is not the end of tech stocks, but a very clear divergence.
The old software logic is retreating, and a new technological paradigm is pricing in.
The real danger is not market volatility but using outdated valuation frameworks to understand a world whose underlying logic has already changed.