#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Another week has passed, and the volatile market has led many to choose to temporarily exit. This is quite normal—the market is like this; a downturn is not the end, as long as you're still in, there’s still a chance. $BTC$ETH

This week, the energy market has sent several signals worth noting. In mid-January, a commodity research department of a certain investment bank released an analysis stating that oil prices might remain under pressure this year. Their logic is quite clear: global oil inventories continue to accumulate, which means that unless a serious supply crisis occurs or major oil-producing countries voluntarily cut production, the market will be difficult to quickly balance—possibly not until 2026 will we see an opportunity for oil prices to rebound.

The research team pointed out that even though geopolitical risks still exist (which can indeed cause short-term volatility), the continuous supply pressure is the decisive factor. Currently, the market faces about 2.3 million barrels of excess capacity daily, highlighting how serious the issue is. According to their forecast, the average Brent crude oil price will hover around $56 per barrel, while US WTI crude may fall to around $52 per barrel.

Such macroeconomic signals often influence the pricing logic of risk assets—when traditional commodities come under pressure, investors’ risk aversion tends to increase.