As the day for the non-farm payroll data release approaches, discussions in the community are heating up again. Today, I’ll clarify this logic for everyone—if the non-farm data comes in below expectations, it’s usually a short-term bullish signal for the crypto market, with the probability of prices rising far exceeding that of falling.

**Why is poor economic data actually good?**

Poor non-farm employment data essentially indicates that the US economy is weakening, and the employment market is under pressure. What does this signal mean for the central bank? It means the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue maintaining high interest rates. To put it plainly—expectations for interest rate cuts will strengthen, and the cycle of rate cuts might even start earlier.

What does a rate cut imply? Market liquidity will become more abundant. Where will this additional capital go? Stock markets, bond markets, cryptocurrencies… all places where value can be added will attract inflows. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are exactly the destinations favored by capital chasing returns. So, the probability of crypto prices rising naturally increases.

**How will the market move after the data release? There are two scenarios:**

**Slightly below expectations**

Market reactions are usually very straightforward—crypto markets open sharply higher, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the gains. Often, you can see a 2%-3% increase on the same day. Popularity is high, trading is active, and there’s nothing complicated about it.

**Significantly below expectations**

This gets interesting. There might be a dip initially. Don’t rush to criticize—this is a normal reaction. Some market participants will worry: “Is the economy really collapsing?” During this time, risk aversion sentiment will push up demand for safe-haven assets, and some investors will choose to close positions and take profits. But this dip is often just a “false alarm.” Once the market digests this shock, the certainty of rate cuts will further strengthen, and a very fierce rebound will follow—much larger than the initial rise.

Psychologically, it’s very important—don’t cut losses before the rebound arrives, or you’ll suffer big losses.

**How to operate practically?**

**Before the data release**: Close all leveraged positions. This isn’t just cautious—it’s necessary. The volatility during the non-farm data release can be huge, and liquidations happen every time. Protecting your principal is always the top priority.

**After the data is out, respond to two possible scenarios:**

If prices jump immediately, don’t chase the high. The real opportunity is during the pullback—wait for a slight correction before entering. For those already holding positions, sell some when the price reaches your target level to lock in profits—this helps maintain a stable mindset.

If prices initially fall, don’t panic. As long as support levels hold—for example, Bitcoin’s recent lows haven’t been broken—then the overall trend remains stable. Hold your positions and wait for the rebound. Historically, rebounds during such times often exceed expectations.

**In conclusion:**

Non-farm payroll data generally has a positive short-term impact on mainstream cryptocurrencies. The key is disciplined execution—don’t be greedy when prices rise, don’t panic when they fall, follow your plan. Data-driven markets like these can present good opportunities for traders with a solid plan.