#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The Federal Reserve Faces a Dilemma: Unemployment Rate Drops, but Job Gains Decline

Recently, US employment data showed a rare contradiction—December's unemployment rate suddenly fell to 4.4%, breaking previous upward expectations, but non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, hitting a post-pandemic low, and the figures for the first two months were revised downward by 76,000. This bizarre situation of "low unemployment rate but shrinking job opportunities" has directly posed a challenge for the Federal Reserve.

On the surface, it looks like the unemployment rate is improving, but in reality, it's a statistical trap. The root cause lies in the labor force participation rate dropping to 62.4%—a large number of unemployed individuals simply stopped looking for work, effectively disappearing from the job market. This gives the Fed a subtle advantage: the low unemployment rate temporarily alleviates the pressure of deteriorating employment, so the January meeting took no action, and market expectations for rate cuts that month plummeted to 5%.

But this is a deception. The real issue is that new employment continues to bleed. In 2025, the total increase in non-farm jobs was only 584,000, the worst year since the pandemic. This indicates that economic growth momentum is waning into recession. From a long-term perspective, the Fed will eventually need to consider easing policies.

On the other hand, inflation hasn't fully retreated. The core PCE inflation rate remains above the 2% target. If the Fed cuts rates too quickly, inflation could rebound, rendering previous efforts to control inflation futile. This is why there are internal disagreements within the Fed: seven officials advocate for holding rates steady this year, while eight support at least two rate cuts. The hawks and doves are at odds, making decision-making increasingly difficult.

The current situation is as follows: in 2026, the Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see, ready to adjust at any time" approach. In the short term, rates are unlikely to move, and the first rate cut may not happen until around June, with the total cuts for the year possibly around 50 basis points. Every decision will depend on data—monitoring whether inflation is truly easing, while also guarding against the impact of employment declines on consumption and investment.

The job market is now in a fragile balance: hiring remains subdued, and layoffs haven't increased significantly. The Fed's task is to find a delicate line between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation. A misstep could trigger sharp market volatility. This decision-making process will have profound implications for global asset allocation, especially liquidity and risk appetite in the crypto markets.