Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, stated that he holds a cautious view regarding the often-cited argument that "the four-year cycle has ended" in the Bitcoin market.

According to Timmer, Bitcoin's current price movement bears more resemblance to the S-curve observed in the early days of the internet rather than the traditional exponential curve.
Timmer noted that many Bitcoin advocates believe that the halving cycle has lost its impact and that a new structural bull wave has begun, but he said he does not fully agree with this view. "I agree with the opinion that the impact of the halving cycle has weakened; however, I am skeptical of the claim that this automatically means the bear market has ended," he said.
According to a Fidelity executive, the current bottom of the Bitcoin trend is $65,000. This level also corresponds to Bitcoin's previous all-time high (ATH). However, the long-term exponential trend line theoretically indicates a bottom around $45,000.
Timmer believes that if Bitcoin enters a sideways phase in the next year, the exponential trend line could shift upward, approaching the $65,000 level, which could serve as a "lifeline" for the market. However, he emphasized that this scenario is not certain, and it remains unclear whether it will happen or even within the next year.