【BlockBeats】Entering the first complete trading week of 2026, global assets are advancing in unison, and Wall Street’s risk appetite has clearly recovered. This week, the S&P 500 index rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index for small-cap stocks surged more dramatically, reaching 4.6%. Even more striking is the passive fund phenomenon—Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has drawn in $10 billion in just a few days, an inflow pace that is indeed rare for passive funds. This opening momentum suggests the year could have a promising start.
However, in the coming week, some critical data points warrant close attention. On Tuesday evening at 21:30, the US will release December unadjusted CPI year-over-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month, and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year. Wednesday evening at the same time, November retail sales month-over-month, PPI year-over-year/month-over-month, and Q3 current account data will follow. Thursday at 21:30 continues with hard data—initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, January New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, and November import price index month-over-month.
More notably worth watching is the shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. Next week, Fed officials will speak intensively, with the key signal being: before the current chairman’s successor takes office, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates again. Strategists from Bank of America Global Research explicitly stated that last week’s data has only strengthened their conviction. This suggests the rate-cutting window may be narrowing.
Additionally, geopolitical factors should not be overlooked. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with Danish and Greenlandic officials next week, and these diplomatic moves could stir market volatility. Meanwhile, the situation in Iran—unrest triggered by anti-government protests including those in the capital Tehran—could potentially impact global risk sentiment in the near term. Overall, next week presents both the litmus test of economic data and the uncertainty from policy and geopolitical factors, with markets likely facing further challenges.
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ウォール街のリスク選好回復、連邦準備制度の利下げ予想に変化——来週の経済データと政策動向を徹底整理
【BlockBeats】Entering the first complete trading week of 2026, global assets are advancing in unison, and Wall Street’s risk appetite has clearly recovered. This week, the S&P 500 index rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index for small-cap stocks surged more dramatically, reaching 4.6%. Even more striking is the passive fund phenomenon—Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has drawn in $10 billion in just a few days, an inflow pace that is indeed rare for passive funds. This opening momentum suggests the year could have a promising start.
However, in the coming week, some critical data points warrant close attention. On Tuesday evening at 21:30, the US will release December unadjusted CPI year-over-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month, and unadjusted core CPI year-over-year. Wednesday evening at the same time, November retail sales month-over-month, PPI year-over-year/month-over-month, and Q3 current account data will follow. Thursday at 21:30 continues with hard data—initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, January New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, and November import price index month-over-month.
More notably worth watching is the shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. Next week, Fed officials will speak intensively, with the key signal being: before the current chairman’s successor takes office, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates again. Strategists from Bank of America Global Research explicitly stated that last week’s data has only strengthened their conviction. This suggests the rate-cutting window may be narrowing.
Additionally, geopolitical factors should not be overlooked. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with Danish and Greenlandic officials next week, and these diplomatic moves could stir market volatility. Meanwhile, the situation in Iran—unrest triggered by anti-government protests including those in the capital Tehran—could potentially impact global risk sentiment in the near term. Overall, next week presents both the litmus test of economic data and the uncertainty from policy and geopolitical factors, with markets likely facing further challenges.